GDP growth is lower than expectation, 3.82% comparing to 4.5% due to corona virus. This is the time to adjust every variable in the valuation model, especially earnings growth.

Bull case, upside of Vietnamese stock market is 20%

Base case, downside is 5%

Bear case, downside is 31%.

Despite the sharp decline in the last 2 months, scenario analysis still show risk which is higher than reward at this price.

FINANDLIFE

Áp lực gì đó đã khiến nhà đầu tư bán chấp nhận lỗ và thoát khỏi thị trường. Đo lường mức độ này cho thấy, hiện tại vượt cả giai đoạn suy giảm cực shock đầu 2018, và còn chưa có dấu hiệu dừng lại.

Cùng với đó, chỉ số tham lam sợ hãi đo tâm lý nhà đầu tư cho thấy tình trạng sợ hãi cùng cực, dữ liệu lịch sử cho thấy chỉ số này đang về vùng thấp nhất, cho thấy sự kinh hãi khủng khiếp. 

FINANDLIFE

MWG is known as the super stock in Vietnam. Most of fund has to hold MWG in their portfolio if they don’t want to underperform. But everything collapses very quickly. Market capital was 50 thousand Vietnam Dong, equivalent 2 billion US Dollar at the end of 2019, but now its market cap is 31 thousand Vietnam Dong, equivalent 1.3 billion US Dollar. The price shrink 40% in 3 months. That’s really crazy.

We have followed the MWG's fair equity and market cap to determine the GAP day by day. This sharp decline creates the biggest GAP between market cap and fair equity in the history. It never be easy to predict the future, no one can be sure the earnings of MWG in the next three year, especially in this Covid 19 epidemic situation. But the huge drop of price in the very short time may trigger new players.

BOM is going to buy 2 million shares. That is necessary, and we expect to see they can keep the fast growth in the coming years.

FINANDLIFE