by finandlife01/04/2020 09:42


Economics | Psychology


by finandlife29/03/2020 17:17

GDP growth is lower than expectation, 3.82% comparing to 4.5% due to corona virus. This is the time to adjust every variable in the valuation model, especially earnings growth.

Bull case, upside of Vietnamese stock market is 20%

Base case, downside is 5%

Bear case, downside is 31%.

Despite the sharp decline in the last 2 months, scenario analysis still show risk which is higher than reward at this price.



Economics | Psychology

Đất phương nam - enjoy in covid quarantine season with my flute

by finandlife28/03/2020 09:25



Chỉ số đo mức độ bán cắt lỗ đang ở vùng cao nhất lịch sử

by finandlife26/03/2020 20:49

Áp lực gì đó đã khiến nhà đầu tư bán chấp nhận lỗ và thoát khỏi thị trường. Đo lường mức độ này cho thấy, hiện tại vượt cả giai đoạn suy giảm cực shock đầu 2018, và còn chưa có dấu hiệu dừng lại.


Cùng với đó, chỉ số tham lam sợ hãi đo tâm lý nhà đầu tư cho thấy tình trạng sợ hãi cùng cực, dữ liệu lịch sử cho thấy chỉ số này đang về vùng thấp nhất, cho thấy sự kinh hãi khủng khiếp. 


Tags: ,


BOM is going to buy MWG after sharp decline in market cap

by finandlife25/03/2020 20:49

MWG is known as the super stock in Vietnam. Most of fund has to hold MWG in their portfolio if they don’t want to underperform. But everything collapses very quickly. Market capital was 50 thousand Vietnam Dong, equivalent 2 billion US Dollar at the end of 2019, but now its market cap is 31 thousand Vietnam Dong, equivalent 1.3 billion US Dollar. The price shrink 40% in 3 months. That’s really crazy.

We have followed the MWG's fair equity and market cap to determine the GAP day by day. This sharp decline creates the biggest GAP between market cap and fair equity in the history. It never be easy to predict the future, no one can be sure the earnings of MWG in the next three year, especially in this Covid 19 epidemic situation. But the huge drop of price in the very short time may trigger new players.

BOM is going to buy 2 million shares. That is necessary, and we expect to see they can keep the fast growth in the coming years.





I am an Investment Manager at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 13 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. Besides, I am a specialist in derivatives, ETF, and CW. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via email thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com. 

Designed by: Nguyễn Chí Hiếu