VIETNAM BETS BIG ON CHIPS

by finandlife15/05/2024 08:58

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Economics

SÓNG VÀNG 2024

by finandlife14/05/2024 09:46

Nguồn: Nguyễn Đức Hùng Linh

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Economics

Jim Simons TOP Hedge Fund Manager

by finandlife13/05/2024 16:57

About 15 years ago, Jim Simons was driving to Boston to give a speech at his alma mater, MIT. He had retired a year before. He was 72 years old. He was, at the time, the most successful hedge fund manager of all time. His wife asked if he was going to mention any guiding principles that made him successful. At first, he thought, “I don’t know that I have any.” Upon reflection, he wrote down five that are both pithy and profound.

-Don’t Run with The Pack

-Hire the Smartest People

-Don’t Give Up Easily -Be Guided by Beauty

-Hope For Good Luck!

Simons arrived at his list organically after building his business. It doesn’t feel artificial. It’s not derived from some acronym. It reflects what worked for him over the course of a remarkable life.

Simons died yesterday at the age of 86. His career consisted of following one passion to the next, ten-year building blocks stacked one on the other. After Simons graduated with his PhD, he worked as a code breaker for the government during the Cold War. He was fired for opposing the Vietnam War. Next, he spent a decade running the math department at Stony Brook University. At about 40, his life took a serious turn. Simmons became so interested in markets and convinced he could build a better system that he quit his prestigious job to trade stocks in an office over a strip mall.

DON’T RUN WITH THE PACKHaving never worked in the financial industry, he proceeded to hire a group of physicists and astronomers to build something new, a quant trading firm.

HIRE THE SMARTEST PEOPLEHe spent 10 years building a platform based on data that didn’t work until all of a sudden it did. It became a flywheel that minted money.

DON’T GIVE UP EASILY He built the most successful financial firm in history without hiring anyone from Wall Street. He regarded doing something well as a form of art. 

BE GUIDED BY BEAUTYThe Medallion Fund, launched in 1988, went on to return 66% a year and generate more than $100 billion in trading profits.

HOPE FOR GOOD LUCKHe was never celebrity famous like Warren Buffet. He didn’t tweet principles like Ray Dalio. He didn’t buy a sports team like Steve Cohen. He was well known for his habit of not wearing socks and chain-smoking cigarettes.

Simons’ success lay in combining his mathematical prowess and insights with a passion to build and inspire teams of people. In the MIT speech, he lays out his recipe: “Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance… That made a lot of money.” Gregory Zuckerman wrote the definitive book on Simons called The Man Who Solved the Market. Simons didn’t want it written. Later, he said it is “pretty good.” Ironically, it probably did more than anything to cement his reputation as the world’s best performing hedge fund manager.

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Jim Simons, the man who solved the market, just passed away. Here are his five principles of success that are priceless and will live forever: (1) Be guided by beauty. Just as a great theorem can be very beautiful, a company that’s really working very well, very efficiently, can be beautiful. (2) Surround yourself with the smartest and best people you possibly can. Let them do their thing. Don’t sit on top of them. If they’re smarter than you, all the better. (3) Do something original. Don’t run with the pack. If everyone is trying to solve the same problem, don’t do that. (4) Don’t give up easily. Stick with it. Stick with it not forever, but really give it a chance to get where you’re going. (5) Hope for good luck. That’s the most important principle. On the last one, he once said something brilliant: "Luck is largely responsible for my reputation for genius. I don’t walk into the office in the morning and say, ‘Am I smart today?’ I walk in and wonder, ‘Am I lucky today?’" - Jim Simons (2000) Legend. The goat of investing, and just a brilliant human being.

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Jim Simons just passed away It's the man who solved the markets 8 quotes from the legend:

“I wasn’t the fastest guy in the world. I wouldn’t have done well in an Olympiad or a math contest. But I like to ponder. And pondering things, just sort of thinking about it and thinking about it, turns out to be a pretty good approach." “One can predict the course of a comet more easily than one can predict the course of Citigroup’s stock. The attractiveness, of course, is that you can make more money successfully predicting a stock than you can a comet.” “In this business, it’s easy to confuse luck with brains.” "Those kinds of times… when everyone is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, that's pretty good for us… " "We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it." "I want a guy who knows enough math so that he can use those tools effectively but has a curiosity about how things work and enough imagination and tenacity to dope it out."

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Economics | StoriesofLife

Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan, His Annual Shareholder Letter 2024

by finandlife09/04/2024 08:40

Jamie Dimon, CEO of The U.S. Largest Bank, J.P. Morgan, Just Released His Annual Shareholder Letter

When Dimon speaks, the world listens.

Here are key takeaways from his annual letter: U.S. Economy:

"In spite of the unsettling landscape, including last year’s regional bank turmoil, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and the markets currently expect a soft landing. It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus"

Soft-Landing: "Equity values, by most measures, are at the high end of the valuation range, and credit spreads are extremely tight. These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates. I believe the odds are a lot lower than that."

AI: "We are completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary and possibly as transformational as some of the major technological inventions of the past several hundred years: Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others." "Over time, we anticipate that our use of AI has the potential to augment virtually every job"

Inflation & Rates: "Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world, and the restructuring of global trade — all are inflationary... This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect." "We are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more"

Private Credit: "Many people in the private credit arena are very smart and creative and want to help the companies they invest in navigate through market shoals. They can move quickly, discreetly and flexibly... On the other hand, not all players are that good. And problems in the private credit market caused by the bad players can leak onto the good ones, even though private credit money is locked up for years. If investors feel mistreated, they will cry foul, and the government will respond by putting a laser focus on the business."

QT: "Quantitative tightening is draining more than $900 billion in liquidity from the system annually — and we have never truly experienced the full effect of quantitative tightening on this scale." "...the unknown effects of quantitative tightening (which I am more worried about than most)"

Geopolitical Risks: "America’s global leadership role is being challenged outside by other nations and inside by our polarized electorate.We need to find ways to put aside our differences and work in partnership with other Western nations in the name of democracy." "Recent events, however, may very well be creating risks that could eclipse anything since World War II — we should not take them lightly."

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Economics

Tỷ giá căng, đằng sau đó và tiếp theo là gì?

by finandlife12/03/2024 17:51

Nguồn: Nguyễn Đức Hùng Linh

Tỷ giá VND tự do hiện đã lên tới 25.600 VND/USD, tăng 3.4% so với đầu năm. Cả năm 2023, tỷ giá tự do tăng 4.2%.

Lý do chính làm tỷ giá tăng là lãi suất. Lãi suất VND đang rất thấp. Lãi suất huy động VND hiện giờ còn thấp hơn thời điểm covid năm 2020 2021.  Lãi suất liên ngân hàng USD -VND thì đã ở trạng thái dương kể từ đầu năm 2023. Lãi suất thấp làm giảm sự hấp dẫn của đồng VND, tăng hấp dẫn của nắm giữ USD. Kết hợp với 2 cú bồi của 2024 là chênh lệch giá vàng và nhập khẩu tăng đã làm tăng áp lực tỷ giá.

Để kiểm soát tỷ giá thì có 2 lựa chọn, 1 là bán USD trong dự trữ và 2 là tăng lãi suất VND. Bài học quý 3/2022 vẫn còn đó, bán USD từ dự trữ thì như gió vào nhà trống, không thể giữ được mà hao tổn dự trữ rất nguy hiểm. Chỉ còn 1 cách là tăng lãi suất, trước tiên là ở thị trường liên ngân hàng.

Thế nên NHNN thứ 2 hôm qua đã quay lại phát hành tín phiếu. Đây là công cụ hút tiền “dư thừa” khỏi hệ thống ngân hàng. Mục tiêu rất rõ, giảm thanh khoản để tăng lãi suất VND, tăng độ hấp dẫn của VND để neo tỷ giá. Tháng 9/2023 khi tỷ giá tăng thì NHNN cũng làm động tác tương tự, phát hành 360 nghìn tỷ tín phiếu trong 7 tuần liên tục để hút tiền. Tỷ giá khi đó đã tăng chậm lại rồi giảm vào tháng 11. Tháng 11 NHNN cũng ngưng phát hành tín phiếu cho đến ngày hôm qua.

Người trong ngành đều đã dự đoán được việc phải can thiệp bằng lãi suất để giữ tỷ giá. Lãi suất trúng thầu trái phiếu kho bạc và lợi tức trái phiếu trên thị trường thứ cấp đều đã tăng từ tuần trước.

Có điều thời điểm này khác với tháng 9/2023. Kinh tế 2023 tăng trưởng chậm, nhu cầu nhập khẩu tư liệu sản xuất và hàng hóa tiêu dùng giảm làm tăng xuất siêu, tức là tăng nguồn cung USD. Dự báo các hoạt động kinh tế và tiêu dùng 2024 sẽ sôi động hơn, kéo theo nhu cầu nhập khẩu tăng và xuất siêu giảm. Thế nên nếu chỉ dùng tín phiếu và công cụ trên thị trường liên ngân hàng trong năm 2024 thì khả năng cao là không đủ.

Thị trường 2 không đủ thì phải dùng đến thị trường 1, tức là tăng lãi suất “tiết kiệm dân cư” như hồi quý 3 2022. Tăng lãi suất tiết kiệm dù vướng định hướng hạ lãi suất để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng nhưng chúng ta không có lựa chọn nào khác.

Thứ nhất, phải ưu tiên ổn định tỷ giá trước.

Thứ hai, tăng lãi suất tiết kiệm không có nghĩa tăng lãi suất cho vay. Để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng thì mấu chốt nằm ở lãi suất cho vay. Năm 2020, 2021 ngành ngân hàng đã lãi đậm vì giảm nhanh lãi suất huy động mà giảm chậm lãi suất cho vay. Năm nay tình hình chắc sẽ khác.

Tôi sẽ không ngạc nhiên nếu 1 vài tháng tới lãi suất tiết kiệm tăng và NIM của ngành ngân hàng giảm.

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Economics

DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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