KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM TĂNG TRƯỞNG TỐT TRONG Q2/2022

by finandlife29/06/2022 10:05

 "Nothing is softer or more flexible than water, yet nothing can resist it." Lao Tzu 

Doanh số bán xe hơi theo tháng, nguồn VAMA

 

GDP quý II tăng 7,72%, mức cao nhất quý II trong giai đoạn 2011-2022. Tính chung 6 tháng đầu năm, GDP tăng 6,42%. 

Các kết quả vĩ mô khác như sau:

* Chỉ số SXCN (IIP) tháng 6 tăng 11,5% YoY, nâng tăng trưởng IIP 6 tháng đầu năm lên 8,7% YoY. Ngành sản xuất, chế biến chế tạo là động lực tăng trưởng chính với mức tăng trưởng 13,1% YoY trong tháng 6 và 9,7% trong 6T 2022. 

* Tổng mức bán lẻ hàng hóa và dịch vụ tiêu dung tăng mạnh 27,3% YoY trong tháng 6. Tính chung 6T 2022, tổng mức bán lẻ tăng 11,7% YoY, nếu loại trừ yếu tố giá tăng 7,9% YoY (so với mức 1,9% cùng kỳ năm 2021).

* Xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu tăng 20% YoY và 16,3% YoY trong tháng 6, lần lượt đạt 32,6 tỷ USD và 32,4 tỷ USD, dẫn đến xuất siêu 276 triệu USD trong tháng 6. Tính chung 6T 2022, tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu lần lượt đạt 185,9 tỷ USD (+17.3% YoY) và 185,2 tỷ USD (+15,5% YoY), qua đó ghi nhận xuất siêu 710 triệu USD trong nửa đầu năm 2022 (cùng nhập siêu 1,9 tỷ USD).

* Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) tháng 6 tăng 0,69% so với tháng trước và 3,37% so với cùng kỳ chủ yếu do giá xăng dầu tăng. CPI trung bình 6T 2022 tăng 2,44% YoY, mức thấp thứ 2 kể từ năm 2017 đến nay (chỉ cao hơn mức tăng 1,47% trong 6T 2021).

VCSC RESEARCH

Tags:

Economics

DANH SÁCH BÁN VỐN 2022 CỦA SCIC

by finandlife28/06/2022 09:04

“The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.” Lao Tzu

Link thoái vốn SCIC 2022 here

Tags: ,

Economics | General

CENTRAL BANK SNAPSHOT 20/6/2022

by finandlife20/06/2022 08:13

“Tell me and I forget, teach me and I may remember, involve me and I learn.”

Benjamin Franklin

Tags:

Economics

Mid-Year Outlook 2022. Hurricane or storm clouds: A world in transition

by finandlife17/06/2022 10:38

"Health is the greatest possession. Contentment is the greatest treasure. Confidence is the greatest friend. Non-being is the greatest joy." Lao Tzu

Introduction

Investing through the cycle

Still, we don’t underestimate the challenges of a world—a global economy and global markets—in transition. Neither do we underestimate the potential opportunities going forward. After all, investing through the cycle means investing for the next cycle.

Campaign against inflation and the end of easy money

War in Europe and commodity supply shocks

COVID-19 in China and the global fallout

Preparing portfolios for this cycle and the next

We think investors can take three steps to prepare goal-aligned portfolios to potentially weather this cycle and next:

Rely on core fixed income as a portfolio ballast

Prioritize balance and quality in equity portfolios

Position for structural change

As we see it, the next cycle will likely feature reconceived and restructured global supply chains. For more than 30 years, supply chains were increasingly globally integrated. Especially after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, much of U.S. manufacturing moved offshore. That tide may be turning as geopolitics and the potential for future pandemics prompt business leaders to add resiliency.

In the next cycle, manufacturers may increasingly bring their factories onshore (or nearly onshore) and make them more “autonomous” (more productive and efficient). For investors, this means increased opportunities for robotics and related hardware and software.

Conclusion

Discipline through discomfort

Today’s investing environment may be uncomfortable for investors, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be profitable. In fact, at current levels, the entry point in stocks and bonds looks to be the most compelling in several years. Investors don’t seem to be overpaying for corporate earnings growth, and fixed income provides a viable yield and important protection against a more severe economic downturn.

The risk of a hurricane—a potential Fed policy error and the risks emanating from war in Ukraine, and lockdowns in China—seems well understood by investors. This also probably means that the downside scenarios are at least partially reflected in current prices. It leaves a smaller chance that one of these risks takes markets by surprise and causes more material weakness.

In fact, the bar seems to have been reset lower for what could constitute a positive surprise. If inflation does reach a trend-like pace and the labor market cools, the Fed may not raise rates as far, or as fast, as investors currently expect. Growth, driven by consumers and corporations, has held up admirably through the headwinds. Investors could well uncover opportunity amid the volatility.

We believe long-term investors will be rewarded for enduring the volatility that will likely define markets over the remainder of the year.

But more importantly, in periods of increased volatility and opportunity, you’ll want to revisit your goals-based plan. Your decisions about risk should be intentional, based on the purpose of the “buckets” in your plan. In this way, nearterm goals are more insulated from volatility, those meant to fund your highest priority goals in the medium term are positioned for growth and stability, and those with the longest time horizons or purposes beyond your lifetime can be positioned more opportunistically.

As always, we believe designing and revisiting a goals-based plan is the most impactful action you can take to help improve the likelihood of achieving your financial goals.

J.P Morgan

Private Bank

Tags:

Economics

Vietnam is the 9th largest country in terms of crypto owners

by finandlife14/06/2022 12:51

“Mastering others is strength. Mastering yourself is true power.” Lao Tzu

Tags:

Economics

DISCLAIMER

I am an Investment Manager at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 15 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. Besides, I am a specialist in derivatives, ETF, and CW. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via email thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com. 

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