TỔNG HỢP CHIẾN LƯỢC 2023

by finandlife31/01/2023 08:48

Quan điểm của Trung Passion Invest

Sau khi thị trường tạo đáy, 2 năm tiếp theo sẽ là “cơ hội vàng” để kiếm tiền

Có hai kịch bản cho thị trường chứng khoán năm 2023. Thứ nhất, mức đáy VN-Index năm nay sẽ không thấp hơn mức 873 điểm từng thiết lập trong năm 2022, và thị trường sẽ đi lên dần. Thứ hai, VN-Index sẽ tìm kiếm vùng đáy mới trước khi hồi phục vào cuối năm, trước khi đi lên, thị trường sẽ có một nhịp "thủng" đáy cũ về khoảng 780 – 800 điểm, khả năng này xảy ra khi nền kinh tế Mỹ bị rơi vào suy thoái mạnh trong năm 2023. (Ông Trung nghiêng về kịch bản 2 hơn)

Để nhận diện đáy của thị trường cần quan sát 3 dấu hiệu nổi bật (1) mức độ sụt giảm (2) khoảng thời gian sụt giảm (3) yếu tố vĩ mô. Khi mức độ sụt giảm đủ mạnh, thời gian giảm kéo dài đủ lâu và những khó khăn vĩ mô đã được giải quyết thì thị trường mới chính thức tạo đáy.

Thị trường từng sụt giảm hơn 40% - mức giảm này đã đủ mạnh, song thời gian vẫn tương đối ngắn. Về yếu tố vĩ mô, chính sách tiền tệ thắt chặt là nguyên nhân then chốt khiến thị trường giảm sâu. Khi lãi suất chưa hạ nhiệt, thị trường chứng khoán khó có cửa đi lên.

Trong ba yếu tố xác nhận đáy thì mới chỉ đạt được yếu tố thị trường giảm đủ mạnh.Tôi cho rằng năm 2023 sẽ đáp ứng đầy đủ những tiêu chí trên và thị trường sẽ đi những bước cuối cùng của giai đoạn downtrend.

Khả năng cao đáy của thị trường sẽ rơi vào cuối Q1/2023 hoặc đầu Q2/2023 tại vùng Vni quanh 800.

Quan điểm của Vinacapital

“VN-Index ước tăng 20% trong năm 2023

Giải ngân đầu tư công dự kiến 2023 sẽ cao hơn 60% vs 2022, đóng góp chính vào tăng trưởng.

Sự sụt giảm làm đơn hàng xuất khẩu sẽ được bù đắp nhờ tăng trưởng của du lịch (TQ mở biên), dự kiến du lịch và khách quốc tế sẽ giúp GDP tăng trưởng 2% trong 2023.

Chúng tôi lạc quan về triển vọng công ty được hưởng lợi trực tiếp từ phát triển cơ sở hạ tầng -  bao gồm các công ty vật liệu xây dựng – và các công ty hưởng lợi gián tiếp như phát triển bất động sản nhà ở và khu công nghiệp, và các công ty hàng không.”

Quan điểm của VCSC

VN-Index đạt 1300 vào cuối 2023

Chúng tôi khuyến nghị tập trung vào lĩnh vực tài chính và tiêu dùng trong năm 2023.

Quan điểm của DC

Về 900 múc mạnh

FINANDLIFE

Tags:

Economics

TIỀN NGOẠI RÚT MẠNH KHỎI ĐÀI LOAN ĐỔ VÀO ĐÔNG NAM Á

by finandlife11/01/2023 08:33

“Bà Tạ Thanh Bình, Vụ trưởng Vụ Phát triển thị trường, Uỷ ban Chứng khoán Nhà nước (UBCKNN) cho biết cơ quan này sẽ đưa hệ thống nền tảng giao dịch KRX của thị trường chứng khoán vận hành từ giữa năm 2023, hỗ trợ cho những giải pháp giao dịch mới trên thị trường, triển khai cơ chế thanh toán bù trừ CCP, giúp thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam tiệm cận với các thông lệ của quốc tế và có thể được cộng điểm trong quá trình đánh giá nâng hạng lên thị trường mới nổi.”

Trên đây là thống kê lượng tiền mua bán ròng của khối nhà đầu tư nước ngoài giữa các thị trường của Châu Á. Nhà đầu tư nước ngoài có xu hướng rút mạnh tiền ra khỏi Đài Loan vì những lo ngại địa chính trị, lượng tiền này 1 phần được phân bổ vào các nước Đông Nam Á. Thái Lan hứng chính lượng này, vì Thái Lan là thị trường mới nổi, hệ thống giao dịch đáp ứng tốt hơn và sản phẩm tài chính đa dạng hơn. Đây là thời cơ lớn của VN. VN cải thiện sớm hệ thống giao dịch hi vọng sẽ hứng được nhiều hơn lượng vốn rút khỏi Đài, khi đó ngoại hối VN cải thiện, doanh nghiệp huy động được vốn và nhà nước thu được thêm thuế.

FINANDLIFE

Tags:

Economics | StockAdvisory

CẶP TỶ GIÁ VND USD VÀ CNY USD YOY CẬP NHẬT 25/10/22

by finandlife25/10/2022 16:46

Tags:

Economics

NGHỊ ĐỊNH 65/2022 PHÁT HÀNH TRÁI PHIẾU DOANH NGHIỆP

by finandlife17/10/2022 08:09

Tags:

Economics

Monetary Policy and Price Stability

by finandlife29/08/2022 17:37

Chair Jerome H. Powell

Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.

At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, "Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations."2

One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention."3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: "For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions."4

Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

1. See Ben Bernanke (2004), "The Great Moderation," speech delivered at the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, February 20; Ben Bernanke (2022), "Inflation Isn't Going to Bring Back the 1970s," New York Times, June 14. Return to text

2. See Paul A. Volcker (1979), "Statement before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, October 17, 1979," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 65 (November), p. 888. Return to text

3. A review of the applications of rational inattention in monetary economics appears in Christopher A. Sims (2010), "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," in Benjamin M. Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds., Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3 (Amsterdam: North-Holland), pp. 155–81. Return to text

4. See Alan Greenspan (1989), "Statement before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, February 21, 1989," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 75 (April), pp. 274–75. Return to text

Last Update: August 26, 2022

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Economics

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I am an Investment Manager at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 15 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. Besides, I am a specialist in derivatives, ETF, and CW. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via email thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com. 

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