SBV 30/5/2024

by finandlife30/05/2024 12:54

Chiều 29/5, phát biểu giải trình tại phiên thảo luận kinh tế - xã hội của Quốc hội, Thống đốc Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam Nguyễn Thị Hồng đã có thông tin thêm về diễn biến tỷ giá và tín dụng trong thời gian qua.

"Vừa qua, Ngân hàng Nhà nước đã phối hợp đồng bộ thực hiện các giải pháp, chính sách để điều tiết tiền tệ và thực hiện can thiệp để đảm bảo nguồn ngoại tệ cho doanh nghiệp nhập khẩu, phục vụ sản xuất trong nước", bà Hồng nói.

Với sự phát triển quay trở lại của sản xuất và tăng xuất khẩu trong thời gian tới, Thống đốc Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam Nguyễn Thị Hồng cho rằng, điều này sẽ hỗ trợ cho cung - cầu ngoại tệ. Đặc biệt, khi chỉ số USD có diễn biến tăng, các doanh nghiệp đã tăng cường hoạt động mua kỳ hạn (mua trước) có nghĩa nhu cầu ngoại tệ trong tương lại sẽ có xu hướng giảm.Đồng thời, Fed có thể điều chỉnh giảm lãi suất vào cuối năm. Nhiều dự báo cho thấy, tỷ giá vào cuối năm nay sẽ được hạ nhiệt.

"Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam vẫn tiếp tục theo dõi sát diễn biến thị trường để các doanh nghiệp yên tâm vấn đề điều hành của Chính phủ", Thống đốc nhấn mạnh.

Tags:

Economics

NVIDIA Stock price vs Earnings

by finandlife28/05/2024 15:29

Tags:

Stocks

Công ty cổ phần VICOSTONE (HNX: VCS): Dòng tiền thuần FCFF đạt mức cao nhất vào Q1/2024

by finandlife19/05/2024 20:53

"Biển cả lớn vì nó chấp nhận mọi dòng chảy; sông suối cao vì nó thấu hiểu sự giảm sút."

Lão Tử

Công ty tiếp tục ghi nhận khả năng thu hồi công nợ xuất sắc và quản lý hiệu quả vốn lưu động, khiến dòng tiền thuần FCFF đạt mức cao nhất mọi thời đại, lên đến 1.760 tỷ đồng trong bốn quý gần nhất (Q1/2024). Hiện tại, công ty có tiền mặt ròng (tiền và các khoản tương đương tiền trừ đi nợ ngân hàng) là 635 tỷ đồng. Với vốn hóa thị trường chỉ ở mức 11.600 tỷ đồng, đây là mức giá khá hấp dẫn. Nếu công ty có thể duy trì dòng tiền thuần FCFF như đã đề cập, nhà đầu tư sẽ chỉ mất khoảng 6,5 năm để hoàn vốn nếu mua toàn bộ công ty.

FINANDLIFE

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To continue working on the transfer of the Phenikaa Chemical Plant in 2024

VCS plans to acquire the Phenikaa Chemical Plant from Phenikaa Group. The Phenikaa Chemical Plant (Phenikaa Chemical) produces UP plastics – one of the most important inputs for VCS’s engineered stone and accounts for 40-50% of total production costs. Phenikaa Chemical is currently owned by Phenikaa Group – VCS’s parent company. With estimated investment costs of USD50.6mn, Phenikaa Chemical has two development phases with an annual designed capacity for the first phase and second phase of 25,000 tonnes each. According to management, Phenikaa Group has invested USD15mn in the first phase and put it into operation in 2021. The first phase is now running stably at around 80% of the designed capacity, per management.In 2023, VCS planned to acquire Phenikaa Chemical. However, due to legal delays related to land acquisition, the transfer has been postponed until now. VCS is accelerating the legal process to complete the acquisition in 2024 at the soonest, as stated by management.

We believe acquiring Phenikaa Chemical should support VCS with (1) reduced production costs and (2) a new revenue stream. With UP plastics accounting for 40-50% of total production costs, bringing the Phenikaa Chemical under its wing should help VCS to manufacture them in-house with lower costs. Additionally, the plant should open new revenue for VCS from selling UP plastics, given its high demand in both Vietnam and the world (see page8).

VCS plans to produce other plastics in the second phase of Phenikaa Chemical. According to management, in addition to UP plastics, VCS will diversify to other plastics like acrylics in the second phase of Phenikaa Chemical. Management forecasts the plant to generate USD40 million in revenue in the first phase, with the potential to double after the second phase is operational.

Further details of the transaction (including the transfer value) have not yet been provided.

Tags:

Stocks

Dragon Capital How They Work

by finandlife17/05/2024 16:15

Source: wealthbriefasia.com

We catch up with a Vietnam-focused fund manager, and talk about new listing ideas, the state of the Asian country's economy, business sectors, and more.

A Vietnam-focused investment trust is heavy with banks and other financial services business, and its managers like the look of technology, consumer discretionary and real estate firms.

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, a listed investment trust trading on the main market of the LSE, is managed by Dragon Capital. One of the more recognisable players in the world of emerging and frontier markets, Dragon Capital’s founder and chairman, Dominic Scriven, recently caught up with this publication on a trip to London.

VEIL is a single-country fund which is still in an MSCI Frontier market. VEIL’s 10-year net asset value return is annualised at 13.4 per centcompared with just 4.8 per cent in the FTSE 250 (of which VEIL became a constituent in 2017).

“Five of our top 10 holdings are banks because the sector constitutes 40 per cent of the VN Index and is expected to contribute 60 per cent to 2024 earnings,”Scriven said. “Banks have seen significant growth over the past decade due to digitisation and the rise of the middle class – 70 to 80 per cent of the population is now online. Banks have developed interactive apps that enable them to collect more fees and reduce costs.

“These holdings require a combination of understanding both top-down macroeconomic factors like US Federal Reserve rate policy domestic monetary policy as well as a bottom-up approach, focusing on shareholder alignment and consistent earnings' potential,” Scriven continued.

“For example, ACB leads in small- and medium-sized enterprise lending, TCB excels in retail mortgages, MBB is a pioneer of digitisation, VPB is one of the largest retail lenders, and VCB stands out for its high asset quality and stability as a state-owned commercial bank. These align with our core themes of urbanisation, an affluent and growing middle class, and the recovery of infrastructure."

Scriven said he expects to obtain 18 to 20 per cent earnings' growth on the trust’s banking portfolio, with return on equity at 18 to 20 per cent, and valuations at an “undemanding” 1.2 x price-to-book ratio versus the sector average of 1.4 x.

Tech, consumer discretionary and real estate

Away from banks, Scriven said winds are set fair for technology stocks, particularly following recent developments such as the Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership focusing on the semiconductor industry and AI applications. At a forward 2024 price-earnings ratio of 19 x, Scriven said tech looks undervalued in the long run.

“The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors are [also] attractive options for value-conscious investors due to the rising middle-class with increased spending power,”he said, noting that retail firm trade at 10 to 12 x enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation, while property developers are valued at a price-to-book ratio of around 1.3 x.

Something to consider for closed-ended trusts, particularly at times when stock market liquidity can sometimes be under pressure, is the share price discount to net asset value.

The VEIL trust has been steadily buying back stock to control the share price discount to NAV, which is in the region of around 17 per cent. The trust is slated to hold its continuation vote in 2025. There is a series of such votes under way across the investment trusts sector in the UK. Investment trusts have to contend with a few challenges. For example, Scriven said that recent mergers of wealth managers have led to minimum ticket sizes for these new larger institutions being too big for the investment trust sector. (While Scriven did not mention M&A deals by name, consolidation moves include the RBC Wealth Management merger with Brewin Dolphin, and the Rathbone/Investec deal, to name just two.)

The Vietnam story

While still, ostensibly, a communist country, Vietnam’s move towards a form of capitalism since the late 1980s – akin to the changes in mainland China over roughly the same period – has seen its profile surge in popularity with frontier/emerging market investors, not to mention its rise as a holiday destination.

Still classified as a frontier market, the country wants to achieve emerging market status – however, controls such as limits on foreign ownership need to be lifted before that can happen.

 

But the hard numbers suggest that Vietnam’s emerging market ambitions are credible, Scriven said.

“Despite being classified as a frontier market, Vietnam's market capitalisation ($273 billion) surpasses emerging markets such as the Philippines ($169 billion) and Qatar ($140 billion), while offering higher daily liquidity ($1.2 billion) than Indonesia ($601 million), Mexico ($571 million), and Malaysia ($470 million),” he said.

Scriven said the government’s recent draft circular by the State Securities Commission of Vietnam (SSC) to eliminate pre-funding is a “substantial step” towards aligning the market with global standards.

Performance

Vietnamese equities have chalked up returns (capital gains and reinvested dividends) of 211.2 per cent in the decade to 31 March, in sterling terms, handily beating every MSCI emerging market constituent except India (+255.0 per cent) over the same period. The MSCI EM index itself returned 83.2 per cent in this time.

Vietnam is getting better known as an investment opportunity, but that does not make it harder to find the “diamonds,” Scriven said.

“There are now over 1,500 companies listed on the equity market, with those having a market cap over $1 billion increasing from seven to 50, and daily liquidity often exceeding $1 billion.

“More companies report results in English, and there is broader sell-side coverage (the SSC recently issued a circular that highlights mandatory English language disclosures for large public companies by January 2025. This is a significant step in transparency for international investors, who currently account for 10 to 15 per cent of daily trading). This growth has expanded the investable universe and presented active managers with more opportunities,” he added.

The trust has a particular approach to how concentrated its portfolio is.

"We are ready to build large positions in companies in which we have high conviction with long-term growth prospects. However, we manage concentration carefully, considering factors like liquidity, market capitalisation, and business sustainability. For example, for highly liquid stocks, a larger position is safer because it's easier to exit if needed. We don’t maintain official hard limits but for stocks over 1 per cent of VNI [Vietnam Index] we generally maintain a 5 x overweight or 12 per cent, whichever is lower, limit," Scriven said. 

The trust does employ borrowing.

"The borrowing is a cash management facility to allow VEIL to trade more efficiently in the market when rebalancing or positioning itself for structured deals rather than being used to take enhanced positions on companies in the hope of boosting returns, he added.

Tags:

Economics | StoriesofLife

VIETNAM BETS BIG ON CHIPS

by finandlife15/05/2024 08:58

Tags: , ,

Economics

AUTOFEED

DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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