US Inflation 2022

by finandlife23/05/2022 09:03

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Economics

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement 5/2022

by finandlife05/05/2022 08:46

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement

May 4, 2022

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. It’s nice to see everyone in person for the first time in a couple years. Before I go into the details of today’s meeting, I’d like to take this opportunity to speak directly to the American people. Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship (gian nan)it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two years and have proved resilient (kiên cường).It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

From the standpoint of our Congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability, the current picture is plain to see: The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high. Against this backdrop, today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target rate for the federal funds rate will be appropriate (phù hợp). In addition, we are beginning the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. I’ll have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

After expanding at a robust 5-1/2 percent pace last year, overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter. Underlying momentum remains strong, however, as the decline largely reflected swings in inventories and net exports, two volatile categories whose movements last quarter likely carry little signal for future growth. Indeed, household spending and business fixed investment continued to expand briskly (nhanh chóng).

The labor market has continued to strengthen and is extremely tight. Over the first three months of the year, employment rose by nearly 1.7 million jobs. In March, the unemployment rate hit a post-pandemic and near five-decade low of 3.6 percent. Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics. Labor demand is very strong, and while labor force participation has increased somewhat, labor supply remains subdued (giảm).Employers are having difficulties filling job openings, and wages are rising at the fastest pace in many years.

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in March, total PCE prices rose 6.6 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 5.2 percent. Aggregate demand is strong, and bottlenecks and supply constraints are limiting how quickly production can respond. Disruptions to supply have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, and price pressures have spread to a broader range of goods and services. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating additional upward pressure on inflation. And COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to further exacerbate supply chain disruptions as well.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing tremendous loss and hardship, and our thoughts and sympathies are with the people of Ukraine. Our job is to consider the implications for the U.S. economy, which remain highly uncertain. In addition to the effects on inflation, the invasion and related events are likely to restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, creating spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade and other channels.

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to restoring price stability.

Against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment, our policy has been adapting, and it will continue to do so. At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point and stated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. We also decided to begin the process of reducing the size of our balance sheet, which will play an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy. We are on a path to move our policy rate expeditiously to more normal levels. Assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in line with expectations, there is a broad sense on the Committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings. We will make our decisions meeting by meeting, as we learn from incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. And we will continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.

With regard to our balance sheet, we also issued our specific plans for reducing our securities holdings. Consistent with the principles we issued in January, we intend to significantly reduce the size of our balance sheet over time in a predictable manner by allowing the principal payments from our securities holdings to roll off the balance sheet, up to monthly cap amounts. For Treasury securities, the cap will be $30 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon securities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills. For agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $17.5 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $35 billion per month.

At the current level of mortgage rates, the actual pace of agency MBS runoff would likely be less than this monthly cap amount. Our balance sheet decisions are guided by our maximum employment and price stability goals, and in that regard, we will be prepared to adjust any of the details of our approach in light of economic and financial developments. Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time. We are highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

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Economics

GOLDMAN SACHS 2022|LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS

by finandlife21/03/2022 09:09

Fellow Shareholders

There’s no question 2021 was an extraordinary year. It was challenging for everyone — our clients, our people, our communities. But even in an incredibly dynamic market environment, our people came together, we stayed true to our strategy, we put our clients first and though we still have a lot of work to do, I’m proud of the fact that we delivered exceptional results to our shareholders.

Net revenues were $59.34 billion, net earnings were $21.64 billion and diluted earnings per common share was $59.45 — all records. Return on average common shareholders’ equity (ROE) was 23.0 percent, the highest since 2007, and return on average tangible common shareholders’ equity (ROTE)1 was 24.3 percent.

It’s true the surge in capital markets activity was a big tailwind. The economy continued to recover from the short but severe recession that marked the pandemic’s early days, and the robust growth that followed put enormous pressure on supply chains, leading to levels of inflation not seen in decades. By year end, rate hikes were widely expected and markets entered a new period of uncertainty.

We don’t expect 2022 to look like 2021, especially as monetary policy tightens and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. But our confidence is as strong as it’s ever been that our strategy is working and that we can help our clients navigate whatever the future holds.

As we move into 2022, I want to thank the people of Goldman Sachs. Their hard work, dedication (cống hiến),creativity and resilience continue to drive our success. Everywhere I go, when I meet with clients, they talk about the caliber (tài năng)and commitment of our people. As many of our teams have returned to our offices around the world, we have had a chance to reconnect and rediscover what makes Goldman Sachs such an extraordinary firm — in particular our exceptional talent and our collaborative culture.

Progress is by no means a straight line, and we are staying nimble as we continue to bring our people together as much as possible. But we believe it’s important that the next generation of Goldman Sachs colleagues — many of whom are early in their careers — experience our apprenticeship culture firsthand as we work together to serve our clients.

Building on the enormous progress we have made, I look forward to all that we will accomplish together in the year ahead. It is a great privilege to lead this remarkable organization, and I couldn’t be more grateful to our leadership team: our president and chief operating officer, John Waldron; our former chief financial officer (CFO), Stephen Scherr; our new CFO, Denis Coleman; and our entire Management Committee.

Unlocking the power of our franchise for our clients is not only driving growth in our core businesses, but also allowing new initiatives to scale and in the years ahead, we will continue to drive returns for our shareholders.

Financial Performance

In 2021, all four of our business segments saw revenue growth year over year. Investment Banking generated record net revenues of $14.88 billion and ranked #1 in worldwide announced and completed M&A, equity and equity-related offerings, common stock offerings and IPOs.2 Global Marketsnet revenues of $22.08 billion were the highest in 12 years. Asset Managementgenerated record net revenues of $14.92 billion; with $2.5 trillion in firm wide assets under supervision (AUS), we are one of the largest active asset managers in the world. And Consumer & Wealth Management generated record net revenues of $7.47 billion, with over $1 trillion in total client assets.3

We believe book-value growth underpins the long-term value of any large, diversified financial institution and, in last year’s somewhat unique operating environment, we were able to grow our book value per common share by 20.4 percent to $284.39.And though some of our businesses are more cyclical than others, we believe we can deliver returns for our shareholders in almost any environment.

Our Strategy

In January 2020, we laid out our three-part strategic plan: We were going to 1) grow and strengthen our existing businesses; 2) diversify our products and services; and 3) operate our firm more efficiently, all in an effort to produce higher, more consistent returns. And though the market environment since then has looked nothing like what we expected, we’ve done very well: Today, we’re tracking more than 30 key performance indicators and we believe we will meet or exceed 95 percent of them.

Key to our success has been a renewed focus on clients. Through our One Goldman Sachs initiative, we are unlocking the power of our franchise by providing more comprehensive and integrated service while also using our network of clients to support our growth. For instance, over 90 percent of the clients on our Transaction banking platform already had relationships with the firm. Our progress confirms one of our core beliefs: that if you really take care of your clients, if you invest in those relationships and if you build trust over a long period of time, good things will happen.

Confident in our strategy, we recently unveiled an updated set of financial targets. In the medium term,4 we believe we can achieve an ROE of 14–16 percentand an ROTE of 15–17 percent. We also reaffirmed our target efficiency ratio of approximately 60 percent.In addition, we announced that our target is to maintain our Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio equal to the regulatory requirements plus a buffer of 50 to 100 basis points.

In addition to our firmwide targets, we unveiled an updated set of business-level targets tied to our growth strategy. Our new targets are $350 billion in organic, traditional, long-term fee-based AUS net inflows over the period from 2020 to 2024;5 $225 billion in gross alternatives fundraising over that same period; more than $10 billion in firmwide management and other fees in 2024, including more than $2 billion from alternative AUS; approximately $750 million in net revenues in Transaction banking in 2024; and over $4 billion in net revenues in Consumer banking in 2024.

Segment Performance

Our four segments create a very powerful ecosystem, and in 2021 they continued to grow.

Investment Banking

We’ve been #1 in global completed M&A for 22 of the past 23 years and, in 2021, we were once again the advisor of choice. Net revenues were 58 percent higher than in 2020, driven by record net revenues in both Financial advisory and Underwriting. Corporate lending net revenues were significantly higher as well. In the past two years, we’ve grown our wallet share by approximately 350 basis points6 and we still see ample room for growth: Our backlog was already high, but during 2021, it grew even more, putting us in a strong position for 2022.

Global Markets

Although market volatility declined in 2021, our clients continued to rely on us for risk management, financial intermediation and, increasingly, financing. Net revenues grew by 4 percent to $22.08 billion. In Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC), net revenues declined, but in Equities they grew by 20 percent. Since 2019, we’ve grown wallet share by approximately 250 basis points.7 We’re in the top 3 with 72 of the 100 top institutional clients, up from 51 just two years ago.8 We also ended the year with record average balances in our prime services business.

Asset Management

Net revenues grew by 87 percent, fueled by significantly higher net revenues in Equity investments and Lending and debt investments. Incentive fees rose, and Management and other fees were a record, reflecting higher average AUS. Growing these durable fees is an area of strategic focus. And in August 2021, we announced that we would acquire leading European asset manager NN Investment Partners (NNIP) in early 2022. NNIP’s world-class ESG capabilities and strong footprint in Europe will help us further strengthen what is already one of the leading asset management businesses in the world.

Consumer & Wealth Management

We continue to empower our millions of clients and customers around the world to reach their financial goals. In 2021, net revenues grew by 25 percent to $7.47 billion. Net revenues in Wealth Management grew by 25 percent to a record $5.98 billion, fueled by higher average AUS, increased client demand for alternative investments and significantly higher net revenues in Private banking and lending. In Consumer banking, net revenues grew by 23 percent to a record $1.49 billion, reflecting higher credit card and deposit balances.

Growth Initiatives (sáng kiến tăng trưởng)

In 2021, we made good progress on our growth initiatives. In many instances, we met our medium-term goals ahead of schedule.

Transaction Banking

I hear from clients constantly that our innovative cloud-based Transaction banking platform is a differentiator. We expanded to the U.K. in June 2021 and, today, we have approximately 350 corporate clients. To extend the platform’s reach, we’ve formed partnerships with American Express, Fiserv, Stripe and Visa; and less than two years in, we have already surpassed our previous five-year-plus target of $50 billion in deposits. Now our target for 2024 is to exceed $100 billion in deposits. Our progress has reinforced our confidence that we can serve this very large addressable market, and we believe it will be accretive to our ROE at scale.

Alternatives

Today, we are one of the top 5 alternative asset managers in the world.9 In 2021, we raised $67 billion in third-party capital across a diverse array of asset classes, including private equity, private credit, growth equity and real estate. That brings us to a total of $107 billion, over two-thirds of our previous five-year goal of $150 billion. As a result, we have set a new target for 2024 of $225 billion in gross alternatives fundraising. We’ve also made significant progress in harvesting our on-balance equity investments over the past two years, with roughly $12 billion in net dispositions since year-end 2019.

Wealth Management

We deliver a world-class, tailored wealth management offering to individuals, families, family offices and nonprofit institutions. In 2021, we had strong long-term fee-based AUS net inflows and continued to expand our global footprint. Our Wealth Management business comprises our premier Private Wealth Management business and our Personal Financial Management Group, which includes Ayco and Personal Financial Management (previously United Capital). Through Ayco we provide a wide variety of workplace solutions for 475 companies to a broad set of our corporate clients’ employees, personalized planning and advisory services for senior executives, as well as full-service, bespoke wealth management solutions for the C-suite.

Digital Consumer Banking

This year, we celebrated the five-year anniversary of our digital consumer banking platform, Marcus by Goldman Sachs, and in that time, we’ve made enormous progress. Our Consumer business has grown to serve more than 10 million customers and $110 billion in deposits, and it is putting our customers at the center of everything we do, signified by winning several significant industry awards and recognitions from J.D. Power, Which? Awards and more. In September 2021, we announced an agreement to acquire GreenSky, the largest fintech platform for home improvement consumer loan originations, whose growing network of over 10,000 merchants will allow us to meet more customers where they transact.We launched critical product releases and features in 2021, including the Marcus app on the iOS app store in the U.K. and Apple Card Family Plan, and we launched the My GM Rewards Card in January 2022. We also look forward to launching our digital checking product in 2022, which will allow us to become the primary bank for our customers.

Operating More Efficiently

In 2021, operating expenses were $31.94 billion, 10 percent higher than in 2020, primarily because we increased our people’s compensation to reward their exceptional performance. While compensation and benefits expenses were up by 33 percent, our 2021 compensation ratio net of provision for credit losses declined by 210 basis points from the prior year. It’s important to note that when this firm went public in 1999, this ratio was over 50 percent. Since then, it has decreased by more than 20 percentage points. However, it is not as relevant a metric as it was before, as we are aiming for a 60 percent efficiency ratio target, and we’re managing both our compensation and non-compensation expenses fluidly.

We are a pay-for-performance culture; we reward our people who drive our growth. But we have a shareholder-aligned compensation framework that relies heavily on equity awards to incentivize long-term value creation, and that compensation can be adjusted when performance is not as robust.

Since January 2020, we have achieved approximately $1 billion of our planned $1.3 billion in annual run-rate expense efficiencies, and we expect to achieve the rest later this year. We have a flexible cost structure that enables us to make investments and support returns, including disciplined expense management, a focus on platforms and digitization, and a priority list of investment spending.

Technology

This year showed how important engineering and technology will be to the future of Goldman Sachs. In 2021, we expanded our fully cloud-based digital businesses and features, including Apple Card Family Plan, My GM Rewards Card and Transaction banking. We also created a series of foundational cloud-based Developer platforms on which our businesses and our clients can easily build new applications. One of our most exciting announcements came in November, when we launched Financial Cloud Data at AWS re:Invent. This platform will offer GS Data and Analytics tools in the cloud to help developers build data-driven applications. And to support all these new offerings, we continue to strengthen the team by recruiting world-class engineering talent.

Our People and Culture

Goldman Sachs has long been known for the quality of its people, and our exceptional results in 2021 made clear just how differentiated they are. We have an abundance of talent, no doubt, but beyond that, we also have a distinctly collaborative culture, which we have worked hard to preserve over the course of the pandemic. We have welcomed thousands of new people to our firm in the past few years, and it was important to us that they experience firsthand what it’s like to build a career at Goldman Sachs. They are at a moment in their careers when learning from their team members and developing a network are crucial to their professional growth. And working together in person makes it far easier for us to pass on our core values of partnership, excellence, client service and integrity.

 

Our people’s health and safety are our top priority,and while we are adapting our plans to the specific needs of each office location, we continue to make progress in bringing our people back together as much as safely possible. We will always give our people the flexibility they need to manage their lives, but throughout 2021, our experience showed that we are stronger when we’re together, and protecting and enhancing our culture will remain a focus for us as we enter 2022.

Sustainability

In 2021, sustainability continued to gain momentum in the economy at large and, at Goldman Sachs, we made further progress toward our goal of supporting $750 billion in sustainable financing, investing and advisory activity by 2030. By year end, we had achieved approximately $300 billion of our goal, including $167 billion in climate transition, $50 billion in inclusive growth and the remainder in multiple themes, reflecting our clients’ need for advice, capital and tools to support their sustainability goals.

In March 2021, we announced a commitment to align our financing activities with a net zero by 2050 pathway and unveiled interim business goals for three industries — oil and gas, power, and auto manufacturing — in our second annual Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures report, Accelerating Transition. As a financial institution, we believe the most meaningful role we can play in the global climate transition is to drive decarbonization in the real economy in partnership with our clients. This requires growing our commercial capabilities and investing in innovation. We also need reliable data, so we are working with corporate partners to develop a free, open source platform for climate-related data and to equip our clients with new impact-measuring tools, like our Carbon Portfolio Analytics in Marquee.

Still, we will not succeed in our effort unless the public and private sector work together. Financial institutions like ours need to direct capital to sustainable solutions in emerging markets. That’s why we’ve partnered with Bloomberg Philanthropies to launch a Climate Innovation Fund that will encourage public and private investment in clean energy projects across South and Southeast Asia. We also need thoughtful public policy that strikes a balance between current energy capabilities and support for new technology, as well as concrete measures that will accelerate a just and orderly transition. After all, that’s what this is: a transition. We recognize the need to build a more sustainable planet, and we’re doing our part to help the world get there.

Diversity and Inclusion

Advancing diversity and inclusion is a top priority of mine. In 2021, we continued to make progress promoting change both in the world at large and within the firm. In July 2021, we strengthened our board diversity requirement. We will now underwrite IPOs for companies in Western Europe and the U.S. only if they have at least two diverse board members, at least one of whom must be a woman. We also advanced progress on closing the opportunity gap through our investment and philanthropic efforts, such as the One Million Black Women initiative. In addition, we made headway with our hiring goals at the analyst, associate and vice president levels, and our 2021 managing director class was the most diverse to date. That said, we still have much work to do to build and retain a pipeline of diverse leadership, and we are hiring additional diversity recruiters, as well as expanding our sponsorship and development programs for diverse talent at the firm.

One Million Black Women

In March 2021, we launched our newest initiative, One Million Black Women, with the goal of investing $10 billion to improve the lives of at least 1 million Black women by 2030. Since then we’ve made investments and grants laying the groundwork to directly impact the lives of over 98,000 women across the country. In direct response to input received from nearly 20,000 Black women and girls, we recently announced two new programs, OMBW Black in Business, focused on Black women sole proprietors, and OMBW Black Women Impact Grants, focused on access to multiyear funding for Black women nonprofit leaders. In addition, for the first time we will be providing capital for microloans through a new partnership with Grameen. Vital to this work has been our exceptional Advisory Council, which includes prominent Black leaders like Roz Brewer, CEO of Walgreens Boots Alliance; Dr. Ruth Simmons, the president of Prairie View A&M University; Melanie Campbell, the president and CEO of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation; and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses

After having served more than 12,300 small businesses in all 50 states through our education program, our signature entrepreneurship initiative, Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses, continues to expand. In September 2021, we launched 10,000 Small Businesses Fellows, a pilot workforce program that pairs community college students in four cities with small business alums of the 10,000 Small Businesses education program for semester-long, paid internships fully funded by the Goldman Sachs Foundation. In addition, our new advocacy initiative, 10,000 Small Business Voices, spoke up for graduates of our education program and worked with the Biden administration to expand the COVID Economic Injury Disaster Loan program and to reform the federal procurement process.

Looking Forward

As we look forward to 2022, I want to thank our clients for putting their trust in us and our people for their extraordinary commitment to the firm. After a record year, we enter the next phase of our growth strategy in a strong position. Our strategic plan is working, our renewed focus on clients is strengthening our franchise and, as always, our people are second to none. We are investing in the future of Goldman Sachs and as a result, the firm will continue to evolve. We have a long-term track record of producing value for shareholders, our leadership team is focused on continuing that record and we are excited by the opportunity ahead.

David Solomon

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

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Economics | Stocks

KINH TẾ VN ĐANG ẤM DẦN

by finandlife06/03/2022 10:27

Tags:

Economics

US INFLATION 2022 RESEARCH

by finandlife16/02/2022 08:23

Again, US inflation comes in higher than median forecasts:

January producer prices rose by 1.0% MoM, twice the median projection (core was 0.8% vs 0.5%)

The annual PPI increase was 9.7% (vs 9.1% expected).

Core inflation was 6.9%.

Bottom line: More CPI inflation in the pipeline.

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Most companies are now worried about inflation. Which sectors are impacted the most?

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US nominal wage growth is now the highest in over two decades. Wage gains among hourly workers have been particularly strong.

Tags:

Economics

DISCLAIMER

I am an Investment Manager at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 15 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. Besides, I am a specialist in derivatives, ETF, and CW. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via email thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com. 

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