Dragon Capital How They Work

by finandlife17/05/2024 16:15

Source: wealthbriefasia.com

We catch up with a Vietnam-focused fund manager, and talk about new listing ideas, the state of the Asian country's economy, business sectors, and more.

A Vietnam-focused investment trust is heavy with banks and other financial services business, and its managers like the look of technology, consumer discretionary and real estate firms.

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, a listed investment trust trading on the main market of the LSE, is managed by Dragon Capital. One of the more recognisable players in the world of emerging and frontier markets, Dragon Capital’s founder and chairman, Dominic Scriven, recently caught up with this publication on a trip to London.

VEIL is a single-country fund which is still in an MSCI Frontier market. VEIL’s 10-year net asset value return is annualised at 13.4 per centcompared with just 4.8 per cent in the FTSE 250 (of which VEIL became a constituent in 2017).

“Five of our top 10 holdings are banks because the sector constitutes 40 per cent of the VN Index and is expected to contribute 60 per cent to 2024 earnings,”Scriven said. “Banks have seen significant growth over the past decade due to digitisation and the rise of the middle class – 70 to 80 per cent of the population is now online. Banks have developed interactive apps that enable them to collect more fees and reduce costs.

“These holdings require a combination of understanding both top-down macroeconomic factors like US Federal Reserve rate policy domestic monetary policy as well as a bottom-up approach, focusing on shareholder alignment and consistent earnings' potential,” Scriven continued.

“For example, ACB leads in small- and medium-sized enterprise lending, TCB excels in retail mortgages, MBB is a pioneer of digitisation, VPB is one of the largest retail lenders, and VCB stands out for its high asset quality and stability as a state-owned commercial bank. These align with our core themes of urbanisation, an affluent and growing middle class, and the recovery of infrastructure."

Scriven said he expects to obtain 18 to 20 per cent earnings' growth on the trust’s banking portfolio, with return on equity at 18 to 20 per cent, and valuations at an “undemanding” 1.2 x price-to-book ratio versus the sector average of 1.4 x.

Tech, consumer discretionary and real estate

Away from banks, Scriven said winds are set fair for technology stocks, particularly following recent developments such as the Vietnam-US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership focusing on the semiconductor industry and AI applications. At a forward 2024 price-earnings ratio of 19 x, Scriven said tech looks undervalued in the long run.

“The consumer discretionary and real estate sectors are [also] attractive options for value-conscious investors due to the rising middle-class with increased spending power,”he said, noting that retail firm trade at 10 to 12 x enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation, while property developers are valued at a price-to-book ratio of around 1.3 x.

Something to consider for closed-ended trusts, particularly at times when stock market liquidity can sometimes be under pressure, is the share price discount to net asset value.

The VEIL trust has been steadily buying back stock to control the share price discount to NAV, which is in the region of around 17 per cent. The trust is slated to hold its continuation vote in 2025. There is a series of such votes under way across the investment trusts sector in the UK. Investment trusts have to contend with a few challenges. For example, Scriven said that recent mergers of wealth managers have led to minimum ticket sizes for these new larger institutions being too big for the investment trust sector. (While Scriven did not mention M&A deals by name, consolidation moves include the RBC Wealth Management merger with Brewin Dolphin, and the Rathbone/Investec deal, to name just two.)

The Vietnam story

While still, ostensibly, a communist country, Vietnam’s move towards a form of capitalism since the late 1980s – akin to the changes in mainland China over roughly the same period – has seen its profile surge in popularity with frontier/emerging market investors, not to mention its rise as a holiday destination.

Still classified as a frontier market, the country wants to achieve emerging market status – however, controls such as limits on foreign ownership need to be lifted before that can happen.

 

But the hard numbers suggest that Vietnam’s emerging market ambitions are credible, Scriven said.

“Despite being classified as a frontier market, Vietnam's market capitalisation ($273 billion) surpasses emerging markets such as the Philippines ($169 billion) and Qatar ($140 billion), while offering higher daily liquidity ($1.2 billion) than Indonesia ($601 million), Mexico ($571 million), and Malaysia ($470 million),” he said.

Scriven said the government’s recent draft circular by the State Securities Commission of Vietnam (SSC) to eliminate pre-funding is a “substantial step” towards aligning the market with global standards.

Performance

Vietnamese equities have chalked up returns (capital gains and reinvested dividends) of 211.2 per cent in the decade to 31 March, in sterling terms, handily beating every MSCI emerging market constituent except India (+255.0 per cent) over the same period. The MSCI EM index itself returned 83.2 per cent in this time.

Vietnam is getting better known as an investment opportunity, but that does not make it harder to find the “diamonds,” Scriven said.

“There are now over 1,500 companies listed on the equity market, with those having a market cap over $1 billion increasing from seven to 50, and daily liquidity often exceeding $1 billion.

“More companies report results in English, and there is broader sell-side coverage (the SSC recently issued a circular that highlights mandatory English language disclosures for large public companies by January 2025. This is a significant step in transparency for international investors, who currently account for 10 to 15 per cent of daily trading). This growth has expanded the investable universe and presented active managers with more opportunities,” he added.

The trust has a particular approach to how concentrated its portfolio is.

"We are ready to build large positions in companies in which we have high conviction with long-term growth prospects. However, we manage concentration carefully, considering factors like liquidity, market capitalisation, and business sustainability. For example, for highly liquid stocks, a larger position is safer because it's easier to exit if needed. We don’t maintain official hard limits but for stocks over 1 per cent of VNI [Vietnam Index] we generally maintain a 5 x overweight or 12 per cent, whichever is lower, limit," Scriven said. 

The trust does employ borrowing.

"The borrowing is a cash management facility to allow VEIL to trade more efficiently in the market when rebalancing or positioning itself for structured deals rather than being used to take enhanced positions on companies in the hope of boosting returns, he added.

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Economics | StoriesofLife

VIETNAM BETS BIG ON CHIPS

by finandlife15/05/2024 08:58

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Economics

SÓNG VÀNG 2024

by finandlife14/05/2024 09:46

Nguồn: Nguyễn Đức Hùng Linh

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Economics

Jim Simons TOP Hedge Fund Manager

by finandlife13/05/2024 16:57

About 15 years ago, Jim Simons was driving to Boston to give a speech at his alma mater, MIT. He had retired a year before. He was 72 years old. He was, at the time, the most successful hedge fund manager of all time. His wife asked if he was going to mention any guiding principles that made him successful. At first, he thought, “I don’t know that I have any.” Upon reflection, he wrote down five that are both pithy and profound.

-Don’t Run with The Pack

-Hire the Smartest People

-Don’t Give Up Easily -Be Guided by Beauty

-Hope For Good Luck!

Simons arrived at his list organically after building his business. It doesn’t feel artificial. It’s not derived from some acronym. It reflects what worked for him over the course of a remarkable life.

Simons died yesterday at the age of 86. His career consisted of following one passion to the next, ten-year building blocks stacked one on the other. After Simons graduated with his PhD, he worked as a code breaker for the government during the Cold War. He was fired for opposing the Vietnam War. Next, he spent a decade running the math department at Stony Brook University. At about 40, his life took a serious turn. Simmons became so interested in markets and convinced he could build a better system that he quit his prestigious job to trade stocks in an office over a strip mall.

DON’T RUN WITH THE PACKHaving never worked in the financial industry, he proceeded to hire a group of physicists and astronomers to build something new, a quant trading firm.

HIRE THE SMARTEST PEOPLEHe spent 10 years building a platform based on data that didn’t work until all of a sudden it did. It became a flywheel that minted money.

DON’T GIVE UP EASILY He built the most successful financial firm in history without hiring anyone from Wall Street. He regarded doing something well as a form of art. 

BE GUIDED BY BEAUTYThe Medallion Fund, launched in 1988, went on to return 66% a year and generate more than $100 billion in trading profits.

HOPE FOR GOOD LUCKHe was never celebrity famous like Warren Buffet. He didn’t tweet principles like Ray Dalio. He didn’t buy a sports team like Steve Cohen. He was well known for his habit of not wearing socks and chain-smoking cigarettes.

Simons’ success lay in combining his mathematical prowess and insights with a passion to build and inspire teams of people. In the MIT speech, he lays out his recipe: “Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance… That made a lot of money.” Gregory Zuckerman wrote the definitive book on Simons called The Man Who Solved the Market. Simons didn’t want it written. Later, he said it is “pretty good.” Ironically, it probably did more than anything to cement his reputation as the world’s best performing hedge fund manager.

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Jim Simons, the man who solved the market, just passed away. Here are his five principles of success that are priceless and will live forever: (1) Be guided by beauty. Just as a great theorem can be very beautiful, a company that’s really working very well, very efficiently, can be beautiful. (2) Surround yourself with the smartest and best people you possibly can. Let them do their thing. Don’t sit on top of them. If they’re smarter than you, all the better. (3) Do something original. Don’t run with the pack. If everyone is trying to solve the same problem, don’t do that. (4) Don’t give up easily. Stick with it. Stick with it not forever, but really give it a chance to get where you’re going. (5) Hope for good luck. That’s the most important principle. On the last one, he once said something brilliant: "Luck is largely responsible for my reputation for genius. I don’t walk into the office in the morning and say, ‘Am I smart today?’ I walk in and wonder, ‘Am I lucky today?’" - Jim Simons (2000) Legend. The goat of investing, and just a brilliant human being.

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Jim Simons just passed away It's the man who solved the markets 8 quotes from the legend:

“I wasn’t the fastest guy in the world. I wouldn’t have done well in an Olympiad or a math contest. But I like to ponder. And pondering things, just sort of thinking about it and thinking about it, turns out to be a pretty good approach." “One can predict the course of a comet more easily than one can predict the course of Citigroup’s stock. The attractiveness, of course, is that you can make more money successfully predicting a stock than you can a comet.” “In this business, it’s easy to confuse luck with brains.” "Those kinds of times… when everyone is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, that's pretty good for us… " "We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it." "I want a guy who knows enough math so that he can use those tools effectively but has a curiosity about how things work and enough imagination and tenacity to dope it out."

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Economics | StoriesofLife

YẾN SÀO KHÁNH HÒA (UPCOM: SKV) NÂNG CỔ TỨC TIỀN MẶT 2023 LÊN 3010 ĐỒNG/CP

by finandlife08/05/2024 13:52

Kế hoạch phân phối tổ yến của công ty Sanvinest (UPCOM: SKV) vào hệ thống nhà thuốc Đông y lớn nhất Trung Quốc, với mục tiêu xuất khẩu 250 tỷ đồng trong năm 2024. Trong tháng 4/2024, công ty đã ký kết hợp tác kinh doanh với hệ thống nhà thuốc Đồng Nhân Đường của Trung Quốc. Năm 2023, SKV ghi nhận kết quả kinh doanh tốt nhất trong lịch sử với doanh thu 2.121 tỷ đồng và lợi nhuận sau thuế hơn 103 tỷ đồng. Tuy nhiên, kết quả kinh doanh quý 1/2024 giảm mạnh so với cùng kỳ năm trước, do việc nhập lượng hàng lớn để hoàn thành kế hoạch doanh thu trong năm 2023 khiến cho sự suy giảm mạnh mẽ trong quý đầu năm 2024.

Công ty vẫn tiếp tục tập trung vào việc mở rộng xuất khẩu, đặc biệt là vào thị trường Trung Quốc. SKV đã có giấy phép xuất khẩu chính thức và đã xuất khẩu sản phẩm vào Trung Quốc, với dự định trong năm 2024 sẽ xuất khẩu khoảng 250 tỷ đồng và con số này dự kiến sẽ tăng trong các năm tiếp theo. Để đạt được mục tiêu này, công ty đang triển khai các dự án mở rộng công suất sản xuất và xây dựng các nhà máy mới.

Về tài chính, công ty đang được hưởng lợi từ mức lãi suất vay ưu đãi từ các ngân hàng, giúp giảm chi phí tài chính. Công ty cũng đã tiến hành điều chỉnh các chính sách về công nợ để đảm bảo tính linh hoạt trong hoạt động kinh doanh. SKV đã đưa vào vận hành gia đoạn 1 Nhà máy chế biến nguyên liệu Yến sào và tiếp tục triển khai giai đoạn 2 xây dựng Nhà máy NGK cao cấp Yến sào Khánh Hòa có công suất 30.000 sản phẩm/giờ với tổng mức đầu tư 420 tỷ đồng. Ngoài ra, công ty sẽ triển khai chương trình hợp tác, liên kết đầu tư nuôi chim Yến trong nhà nhằm chủ động nguồn nguyên liệu cũng như kiểm soát giá thành sản phẩm.

Cổ tức tiền mặt 2023 sẽ trả 3010 đồng/cổ phiếu, tương đương suất sinh lãi cổ tức tiền mặt đạt 8%/năm, khá tốt cho một doanh nghiệp tiêu dùng mạnh.

FINANDLIFE

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DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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