"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply gives you courage." Lao Tzu

Thật lòng mà nói, VNM vẫn là thương hiệu tiêu dùng hàng đầu của VN. Tôi vẫn thường xuyên theo dõi kết quả sản xuất kinh doanh và giá cổ phiếu để chờ đợi một ngày nào đó mua nó. Nhưng VNM không khỏi làm thất vọng. Theo dõi suốt 5 năm qua, mỗi quý qua đi là một sự thất bại của câu chuyện tăng trưởng. Kết thúc Q1/2022, giá trị doanh nghiệp không những không duy trì mà còn tụt giảm, từ mức 116k tỷ xuống còn 99k tỷ, tương đương giá trị hợp lý giảm từ 55 ngàn đồng/cp xuống 47 ngàn đồng/cp.

CỔ ĐÔNG VNM VẪN ĐANG PHẢI TRẢ GIÁ QUÁ LỚN CHO SỰ KHÔNG TĂNG TRƯỞNG.

Lợi nhuận sau thuế năm 2017 đạt 9,350 tỷ đ; 2018 đạt 10,296 tỷ; 2019 đạt 10,227 tỷ; 2020 đạt 10,581 tỷ; 2021 đạt 10,532 tỷ đồng. Như vậy trong suốt 5 năm qua, VNM không hề tăng trưởng.

Nếu như vốn hóa thị trường cuối 2017 đạt 300k tỷ đồng, PE 29 lần, vì nhà đầu tư kỳ vọng vào sự tăng trưởng 5 năm tiếp theo cùng với sự thống lĩnh thị trường của VNM. Đến nay, vốn hóa thị trường đạt 140k tỷ đồng, PE đang 13.8 lần. Với doanh nghiệp không tăng trưởng, thông thường nhà đầu tư cổ phiếu thuần túy chỉ chấp nhận trả PE 10 lần.

Nếu VNM tiếp tục không tăng trưởng được trong những năm tiếp theo, khả năng vài năm tới sẽ chứng kiến, giá cổ phiếu VNM về đầu 5x.

Ngoài yếu tố quá lớn để tăng trưởng, VNM cũng đối mặt không ít thách thức liên quan đến sự tăng trưởng giá nguyên liệu đầu vào, biên lãi gộp đang có xu hướng sụt giảm, gross margin chỉ còn 43% trong 2021, so với mức trung bình 47% trong những năm trước, chưa dừng lại, gross margin chỉ còn 40% trong Q1/22. EBITDA margin cũng về mức thấp nhất lịch sử, từ mức trung bình 21% về 18.7%.

Vài năm trở lại đây, những khoản mục đầu tư mới của VNM tỏ ra kém hiệu quả. Nếu vấn đề này không cải thiện trong vài năm tới, rất có thể cổ đông sẽ yêu cầu dùng tiền đó trả cổ tức thay vì đầu tư, khi đó VNM sẽ trả cổ tức mỗi năm khoảng 4,500 đồng/cp. Nếu giá cp về 4x, dividend yield sẽ bắt đầu hấp dẫn người mua mới.

"Khi một doanh nghiệp không còn động lực để tăng trưởng, cách tốt nhất là trả hết cổ tức kiếm được hàng năm cho cổ đông."

FINANDLIFE

"Health is the greatest possession. Contentment is the greatest treasure. Confidence is the greatest friend. Non-being is the greatest joy." Lao Tzu

Introduction

Investing through the cycle

Still, we don’t underestimate the challenges of a world—a global economy and global markets—in transition. Neither do we underestimate the potential opportunities going forward. After all, investing through the cycle means investing for the next cycle.

Campaign against inflation and the end of easy money

War in Europe and commodity supply shocks

COVID-19 in China and the global fallout

Preparing portfolios for this cycle and the next

We think investors can take three steps to prepare goal-aligned portfolios to potentially weather this cycle and next:

Rely on core fixed income as a portfolio ballast

Prioritize balance and quality in equity portfolios

Position for structural change

As we see it, the next cycle will likely feature reconceived and restructured global supply chains. For more than 30 years, supply chains were increasingly globally integrated. Especially after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, much of U.S. manufacturing moved offshore. That tide may be turning as geopolitics and the potential for future pandemics prompt business leaders to add resiliency.

In the next cycle, manufacturers may increasingly bring their factories onshore (or nearly onshore) and make them more “autonomous” (more productive and efficient). For investors, this means increased opportunities for robotics and related hardware and software.

Conclusion

Discipline through discomfort

Today’s investing environment may be uncomfortable for investors, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be profitable. In fact, at current levels, the entry point in stocks and bonds looks to be the most compelling in several years. Investors don’t seem to be overpaying for corporate earnings growth, and fixed income provides a viable yield and important protection against a more severe economic downturn.

The risk of a hurricane—a potential Fed policy error and the risks emanating from war in Ukraine, and lockdowns in China—seems well understood by investors. This also probably means that the downside scenarios are at least partially reflected in current prices. It leaves a smaller chance that one of these risks takes markets by surprise and causes more material weakness.

In fact, the bar seems to have been reset lower for what could constitute a positive surprise. If inflation does reach a trend-like pace and the labor market cools, the Fed may not raise rates as far, or as fast, as investors currently expect. Growth, driven by consumers and corporations, has held up admirably through the headwinds. Investors could well uncover opportunity amid the volatility.

We believe long-term investors will be rewarded for enduring the volatility that will likely define markets over the remainder of the year.

But more importantly, in periods of increased volatility and opportunity, you’ll want to revisit your goals-based plan. Your decisions about risk should be intentional, based on the purpose of the “buckets” in your plan. In this way, nearterm goals are more insulated from volatility, those meant to fund your highest priority goals in the medium term are positioned for growth and stability, and those with the longest time horizons or purposes beyond your lifetime can be positioned more opportunistically.

As always, we believe designing and revisiting a goals-based plan is the most impactful action you can take to help improve the likelihood of achieving your financial goals.

J.P Morgan

Private Bank

🟢 ROI shows my return in DOLLARS

🟢 IRR shows my ROI adjusted for TIME

You need both to understand the return of an investment.

I’ll explain...

🟢 Let's start with the easier one — ROI.

ROI means "Return on Investment"

(↑ btw, this is often called MOIC or "Cash-on-Cash")

▪️ If I invest $100 and get back $200 my ROI is 2.0x = ($200 / $100)

▪️ If I invest $100 and get back $300 my ROI is 3.0x = ($300 / $100)

Make sense?

But now let's introduce TIME...

If I make 2.0x in one month, great!

But if I make 2.0x in 100 years... not so great.

So I need a way to measure my ROI over TIME as well.

🟢 That's where IRR comes in.

IRR means "Internal Rate of Return,"

and while IRR is often used alongside NPV & DCF analysis,

I want to simplify it further...

Let's say IRR means the "annualized rate of return for an investment."

In other words, "what percent did I make PER YEAR?"

10%? 25%?

Let's go back to the examples above...

▪️ 2.0x in one month: 409,500.0% (← ...uh what?)

▪️ 2.0x in 100 years: 0.7% (← makes more sense)

This is where IRR can be misleading and why it's common for private equity folks to say "you can't spend IRR."

IRR calculates an ANNUALIZED percent return, so big returns in the early days can skew the numbers.

If I crush it in the first month, my IRR formula says, "whoa! you're gonna keep this up all year — nice!"

But in reality it won't play out that way.

The IRR starts to feel more "palatable" as time goes by, for example:

▪️ 2.0x after 6 months: 300%

▪️ 2.0x after 1 yr: 100%

(↑ I doubled up in one year, and IRR is an annualized number, so it's 100%)

▪️ 2.0x after 2 yrs: 73%

▪️ 2.0x after 3 yrs: 44%

▪️ 2.0x after 4 yrs: 32%

(↑ see how it drops off steeply & then smooths out?)

🟢 And this is why you need BOTH.

Without the other, they can both be misleading.                   

So you compare them side-by-side:

As of [date] my ROI was [X] and my IRR was [Y].

———

Note, this gets trickier once you factor in timing of cash flows...

If I invest $100, get $120 back in month 2 and $80 back in month 6,

I've still made 2.0x, but my IRR will be much higher than 300%.

(↑ conversation for another time).

———

So how do I think about it in my head?

I just compare any private investment to the stock market.

If I can open a brokerage account, pay basically no fees, take my money out anytime, and make 7-10% on average...

Then locking up my capital in an illiquid private investment (that has fees) must have a MUCH higher IRR than 7-10%.

That premium needs to compensate me for the additional risk I'm taking.

Which leads me to a common private equity metric...

Most deals target 3.0x over 5 years at a ~25% IRR.

This is the goal post set in most models.

(↑ much higher than the market to compensate for the risk)

—Chris

🤝 p.s. whenever you’re ready, there are 3 ways I can help you (in comments ↓)