Published on July 10, 2017
Vietnam's PMI edged up to 52.5 in June, after hitting a 14-month low of 51.6 in May, showing a stronger monthly improvement in the manufacturing sector. New orders expanded for the 19th month in a row on strengthening client demand, with the sub-index reaching 54.3 from 52.2 in May. Manufacturers raised their staffing levels and purchasing activity in response to higher new orders and production requirements.
Vietnam saw its foreign exchange reserves soar to a record high of US$42 billion in end-June, up by US$1 billion against early this year, said the State Bank of Vietnam’s Governor Le Minh Hung.
Deputies of the HCMC People’s Council are pinning high hopes that the city will be able to achieve its 2017 growth target of 8.4-8.7% given monetary market stability, and positive capital mobilization and economic restructuring.
Strategy Report: 1H2017 Earning Release Season
Rong Viet Research released its July 2017 strategy report entitled “1H2017 Earning Release Season”
VN-Index has recorded a strong year-to-date growth of 16.8%. As the market continued to reach new multi-year highs, domestic investors seem to have become more risk adverse. As a result, market liquidity decreased to VND3,563 billion (down 19.1% MoM).
Foreign investors’ sentiment remained positive as reflected by the 6-month accumulated net bought value of VND9,200 billion.
At 16.5x earnings, valuations for the VNIndex are near multi-year highs. However, compared to others Vietnam is among the cheaper markets in the ASEAN + China region. Current valuations are justified by the economy’s rapid development and low inflation environment.
Analyst Pinboard
The Blooming Phase of LED Lighting in Vietnam is Coming
DQC’s LED prices have dropped by 30-40% compared to three years ago, following a wider industry trend. As prices continue to drop over the next few years, we expect higher LED penetration rates.
According to McKinsey’s research, for a life cycle of a new technology such as flat television or digital camera, it takes 5-7 years to reach the penetration rate of 10%, and another 1-3 years to increase to 20%, then grows rapidly afterwards.The estimated global LEDs penetration rate by Statista shows similar pattern: the penetration rate of LEDs reached 10% after 5 years, however, jumped to 26% in the next two years.
It was not until 2013 that local lighting companies such as DQC and RAL started commercializing them. Based on studies of product life cycle as well as the revenue of LEDs of DQC and RAL in recent years, we think that the LEDs penetration rate in Vietnam currently is about 10%. Therefore, we expect a thriving growth of LED lighting in Vietnam over the next 3-4 years.
Dong Nai Plastic JSC (HNX: DNP) – Update on water projects
With many clean water projects expected to run in 2019 and the coming M&A plans, water sector is expected to start to have higher contribution to DNP’s revenue.
Its Binh Hiep Water Plant has increased its design capacity from 30,000 m3/day to 50,000 m3/day at the end of 2016 and maintains high utilization rate (over 80%). Water consumption of Binh Hiep could reach about 15 million m3 and Binh Hiep contributes about VND14.5 billion, up 56% compared to last year.The capacity of water distribution at Dong Tam Water Plant has improved significantly with water consumption nearly doubled from 25,000 m3/day since DNP took over this water plant (Q4/2017). If this plant reaches its break-even point, it will contribute to DNP a net income of VND16 billion.
DNP is also expected to kick off DNP - Long An Phase 1 project (30,000 m3/day) this July and DNP - Bac Giang project (60,000 m3/day). The estimated capital investments are approximately VND900 and VND1,400 billion respectively. The Company will raise charter capital in DNP Water to VND950 billion through a private placement to two strategic partners. The Company may continue to raise capital at DNP Water to VND1,250 billion by the end of 2017.
We maintain our earnings forecast in FY2017 with sales of VND1,960 (+35.2% YoY) and EAT of VND 130 billion (+ 43.3% YoY). We maintain our target price at VND29,700 (before stock dividend), 4.5% lower than market.
Thuy Ta JSC (UPCoM: TTJ) – A Small Ice Cream Company
TTJ listed on UPCoM on June 20th. Beginning with restaurant services, TTJ has expanded business activities to ice cream and ice production. Currently, TTJ owns three restaurants in Hanoi: Dinh Lang, Mamarosa, Long Van and an ice cream production line with the capacity of 1 million litres per year. The Company mainly operates in Hanoi and is a subsidiary of Hapro, which owns 51.25%.
In 2016, ice cream accounted for 49%, while restaurant services accounted for 31% of total revenue. However, restaurant services represented 62% of gross margin.
Management plans to achieve VND115 billion (+4.5% YoY) in revenue and VND8 billion (+9.5% YoY) in net profit in 2017.
Because of capital constraints and government ownership, expansion has been limited. Hopefully following Hapro’s divestment (scheduled for 2017-18) things will improve.
1H2017 Foreign Capital Inflows – a New Record since 2008
Foreigners continued to net buy in June, with a total of VND2,047 billion worth of Vietnamese equities.
Basic resource and Construction & building material shares were the two main areas of interest. Top net bought shares are HPG (VND504 billion), ROS (VND299 billion) and PLX (VND207 billion). In June, foreigners also net bought 8.4 million certificates, equivalent to VND104 billion of the E1VFVN30.
For the first half of the year, total net buying value was VND9,200 billion, a 9-year high. Foreigners tended to pay more attention to F&B, construction and building materials.
Concerns over the Divergence between Price and Volume Existing on the Market
The market liquidity plunged on both the HSX and the HNX by 19.1% and 5.4% respectively, equivalent to absolute values of VND839bn and VND34bn respectively. At a deeper analysis, we found that the decreased liquidity of ROS (-VND625bn, -66.6%) and mid-caps (-VND187bn, -17.2%) were the two main drivers of this decline. The VN-SML liquidity increased by VND17 billion (+4.5%) and the VN-30 liquidity was almost unchanged (-VND2 billion, -0.2%).
Excluding ROS, the numbers don't look as negative. However, that the liquidity didn't continue to increase shows investors’ uncertainty at these price levels.
Only look at the index, it seems expensive as VNIndex jumped 16.8% (YTD). However, if we consider overall market PE (up from 16.3x at the end of 2016 to 16.5x on June 30th), then we believe the market still has room to increase, given the sustainable macroeconomic environment and the efficiency of listing companies.
Source: Rongviet Research