Ray Dalio lo ngại Trade War ảnh hưởng đến long run

by finandlife11/07/2018 21:55

Cái lo ngại đó là môi trường kinh doanh, môi trường đầu tư toàn cầu nó xấu đi. Trong điều kiện bình thường, việc forecast growth đúng bằng lạm phát đã là khá logic, nhưng nếu có biến cố xấu, Ray Dalio lo ngại TRADE WAR ảnh hưởng xấu tới tận 2 thập kỷ tới, thì Fair hiện tại chẳng còn là Fair cho tương lai nữa rồi.

Đầu tư là mô hình đa biến. Thị trường giảm tan nát thời gian gần qua đưa thị giá nhiều cổ phiếu về vùng hấp diêm. Nhưng nếu nền tảng cơ bản toàn cầu xấu đi thì hấp dẫn hiện tại chưa thể hấp dẫn cho tương lai.

Lưu ý.

FINANDLIFE

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“I got a few responses from my “Today is the first day of the war with China” post, asking if I thought it was an alarming thing to post. I didn’t think so at the time, but perhaps that’s right. It was too short a statement without a good explanation so, in retrospect I see that it probably sounded alarmist. I apologize for that. I should have explained myself better. In brief I find the situation to be like that in the late 1930s and I have spent enough time in China to believe that this type of approach/war has a significant risk of leading to a bigger and broader type of war (as it did in the late 1930s). For that reason I think that the competition/war with China is one of the really big, challenging issues that will be with us for the next couple of decades, and I am alarmed at how it is going. I also think that we are too focused on that China trade issue and not adequately focused on how we are taking care of ourselves (e.g. our children’s education, our infrastructure, our financial condition, our striving for equal opportunity, our political decision making, etc.) to be strong. When I have time I will explain my thinking better so you can assess it.”

Ray Dalio

Tags:

Psychology | StockAdvisory

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I am a Senior Associate – Investment at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 12 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities.

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