Cung vượt cầu sẽ tiếp tục làm giá cao su suy giảm hai năm tới

by finandlife10/07/2014 09:08

Rubber glut /glʌt/ n  (a supply of something, especially a product or crop, that is more than is needed) seen persisting (continue) two more years on slowdown

A sixth year of global surplus could depress rubber prices through 2016, as maturing (adult) trees boost production and slowing growth reduces demand in China, the biggest consumer, according to an industry adviser.

Dư thừa toàn cầu năm thứ 6 đẩy giá cao su giảm đến năm 2016, khi những cây trưởng thành đẩy sản lượng tăng và nhu cầu tăng chậm lại tại Trung Quốc, Quốc gia tiêu thụ cao su lớn nhất.

Supply will outpace (to go faster, do better, or develop more quickly than someone or something else) demand by 316,000 tonnes in 2016, compared with 483,000 tonnes in 2015, according to the London-based The Rubber Economist. The adviser increased its forecast for this year’s glut by 78 per cent in March as output in Thailand, the largest grower and exporter, surpassed predictions. The International Rubber Study Group also raised its estimate saying production will increase as trees planted between 2006 and 2008 mature.

Cung sẽ vượt cao khoảng 316,000 tấn trong 2016, con số này sẽ là 483,000 tấn năm 2015. Tháng 3 năm nay, cung vượt cầu 78% khi sản lượng tại Thái Lan vượt dự kiến (TL là nước tăng trưởng và xuất khẩu cao su lớn nhất thế giới).

Futures in Tokyo, the global benchmark contract, have tumbled 26 per cent this year, touching a four-year low in April. Lower prices may boost earnings at tire makers including Pirelli & C SpA and Bridgestone Corp (5108), while squeezing profits for small farmers who account for about 80 per cent of world supply. China's economy is forecast to grow 7.3 per cent this year, the weakest pace since 1990, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Giá cao su đã giảm 26% năm nay, chạm vùng thấp nhất 4 năm vào tháng 4. Giá thấp hơn sẽ đẩy thu nhập của những công ty chế tạo lốp xe như Pirelli & CSpA, Bridgestone, DRC, CSM…, trong khi đó lợi nhuận của những nông dân nhỏ sẽ bị ép lại (hiện 80% sản lượng cung cấp toàn cầu do những người nông dân nhỏ lẻ sản xuất). Trung Quốc đang tăng trưởng chậm lại.

“The natural rubber market may remain in surplus until 2016,” Prachaya Jumpasut, managing director of The Rubber Economist, said in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg. “Prices may remain bearish until then, unless demand picks up faster than I anticipate in China and other major consuming countries.” Futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange settled at ¥203.4 a kg ($2,015 a tonne) on Wednesday, down 62 per cent from a record in 2011, and fell into a bear market in January as stockpiles in China climbed.

China reserves

Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, reached a record 270,000 tonnes as of May 16, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

Tồn kho tại Qingdao, trung tâm giao dịch cao su chính tại Trung Quốc, đã đạt mức cao kỷ lục, 270,000 tấn vào ngày 16 tháng 5.

Imports could expand 10.7 per cent this year to 4.26 million tonnes, slowing from last year’s growth of 14.3 per cent, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said this month.

Nhập khẩu có thể mở rộng 10.7% năm nay, đạt 4.26 triệu tấn, chậm hơn so với 14.3% của cùng kỳ năm trước.

“We’re in a period of, I would say, instability in the industry,” Stephen Evans, secretary-general of IRSG, the Singapore-based inter-governmental group, told a conference yesterday in Singapore. “It’ll probably last for another year or two until we see a shift in global economic performance.”
While a looming El Niño may not be enough to reduce the glut, the weather event that brings drought
/draut/ n (a long period of dry weather when there is not enough water for plants and animals to live) to the Asia-Pacific region might curb the decline in prices, according to Prachaya. The El Niño during 1997-1998 slowed production growth to 0.4 per cent in 1997 from 6 per cent in 1996, he said. There’s no evidence of any impact during occurrences in 1982-1983 and 1987-1988, according to Prachaya.

El Niño

“The impact of drought and El Niño on production will not be enough to counter the current large and rising amount of natural rubber surplus,” Prachaya said. “But, it may help to slow down the declining price trend.” Futures rose as much as 1.3 per cent on Wednesday on speculation that Thailand’s plan to reduce state stockpiles of 200,000 tonnes could be delayed after the military imposed martial law.

Ảnh hưởng của khô hạn và El Nino lên sản lượng sẽ không đủ để chống lại sản lượng dư thừa cao su tự nhiên đang tăng lên và rất lớn hiện tại, nhưng nó có thể giúp quá trình giảm giá chậm lại.

Global demand in 2014 may grow close to the IRSG’s lowest estimate of four per cent, said Lekshmi Nair, its senior economist.

“What might support rubber prices is, obviously, increased demand,” Evans said. “What is stopping everybody getting excited about the possibility of the US and European recovery is that China is apparently slowing down.”

 

Nguồn: finandlife|Bloomberg

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