Triết lý đầu tư của Soros

by finandlife22/01/2015 12:34

How would you describe your particular style of investing?

My peculiarity is that I don’t have a particular style of investing or, more exactly, I try to change my style to fit the conditions. If you look at the history of the Fund, it has changed its character many times. For the first ten years, it used practically no macro instruments. Afterwards, macro investing became the dominant theme. But more recently, we started investing in industrial assets. I would put it this way: I do not play according to a given set of rules; I look for changes in the rules of the game.

You have said that intuition is important in your investment success, so let’s discuss intuition. What do you mean when you say you use intuition as an investment tool?

I work with hypotheses. I form a thesis about the anticipated sequence of events (chuỗi sự kiện được dự báo trước) and then I compare the actual course of events with my thesis; that gives me a criterion by which I can evaluate my hypothesis.

This involves a certain element of intuition. But I’m sure the role of intuition is so great, because I also have a theoretical framework. In my investing, I tend to select situations that fit into framework. I look for conditions of disequilibrium (điều kiện mất cân bằng). They send out certain signals that activate me. So my decisions are really made using a combination of theory and instinct (bản năng). If you like, you may call it intuition.

Ordinarily, people think of money managers as having a combination of imagination and analytical ability. If you broke down all the skills into just those two categories, which one would be your particular strength – imagination or analytical ability?

I think my analytical abilities are rather deficient, but I do have a very strong critical faculty (khả năng quản trị, tài năng). I am not a professional security analyst. I would rather call myself an insecurity analyst (nhà phân tích về sự bấp bênh).

That’s a provocative statement. What do you mean by that?

I recognize that I may be wrong. This makes me insecure. My sense of insecurity keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors. I do this on two levels. On the abstract level, I have turned the belief in my own fallibility (sai lầm riêng) into the cornerstone of an elaborate philosophy (triết lý tỉ mỉ).

On a personal level, I am a very critical person who looks for defects (khiếm khuyết) in myself as well as in others. But, being so critical, I am also quite forgiving. I couldn’t recognize my mistakes if I couldn’t forgive myself. To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride (nguồn gốc của tự hào). Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.

You have said about yourself that you recognize your mistakes more quickly than others. That sounds like a necessary trait (đặc điểm cần thiết) in investing. What do you look for to see if you are wrong?

As I told you before, I work with investment hypotheses. I watch whether the actual course of events corresponds to my expectations. If not, I realize that I am on the wrong track.

But sometimes things get off the track for a short time and then get back on the track. How do you know which is the case? That’s what takes talent.

When there is a discrepancy (sự khác biệt) between my expectations and the actual course of events, it doesn’t mean that I dump (sell goods) my stock. I re-examine the thesis and try to establish what has gone wrong. I may adjust my thesis or I may find that there is some extraneous influence (ảnh hưởng ngoại lai) that has come into the picture. I may end up actually adding to my position rather than dumping it. But I certainly don’t stay still and I don’t ignore the discrepancy. I start a critical examination. And generally, I’m quite leery (thận trọng) of changing my thesis to suit the changed circumstances (hoàn cảnh thay đổi), although I don’t rule it out completely.

You have talked about the “joy of going against the herd.” What signs do you look for to determine whether it is time to buck the trend?

Being so critical, I am often considered a contrarian. But I am very cautious about going against the herd; I am liable to be trampled on. According to my theory of initially self-reinforcing, but eventually self-defeating trends, the trend is your friend most of the way; trend followers only get hurt at inflection points (những điểm uốn), where the trend changes. Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of a herd and I am on the lookout for inflection points.

The prevailing wisdom (sự khôn ngoan phổ biến) is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw (lỗ hỏng) in every investment thesis.

My sense of insecurity is satisfied when I know what the flaw is. It doesn’t make me discard the thesis. Rather, I can play it with greater confidence because I know what is wrong with it while the market does not. I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs (những dấu hiệu mách lẻo) that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.

-From Soros on Soros, Copyright © 1995 by George Soros. Reprinted by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

 

Editor’s Note: George Soros runs Soros Fund Management, the principal investment advisor to Quantum Fund, a Curacao-based investment firm. Quantum Fund is generally recognized as having the best performance

Tags:

Economics | Psychology

DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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