[MWG] KQKD 7T2017

by finandlife31/08/2017 08:36

LNST 7 tháng 2017 tăng 29% so với cùng kỳ nhờ tích cực mở cửa hàng và doanh thu bán hàng trực tuyến tăng mạnh. KN MUA

CTCP Đầu tư Thế giới di động công bố KQKD sơ bộ 7 tháng 2017, bao gồm doanh thu đạt 36,8 nghìn tỷ đồng (+58% so với 7 tháng 2016) và LNST 1.261 tỷ đồng (+29% so với 7 tháng 2016). Tăng trưởng doanh thu ấn tượng đến từ các cửa hàng mở mới (83 cửa hàng Thegioididong và 90 cửa hàng DienmayXANH mới), đóng góp từ các cửa hàng mở trong năm 2016 và doanh số bán hàng trực tuyến tăng gần gấp đôi. Tính đến cuối tháng 7/2017, MWG có tổng cộng 1.034 cửa hàng Thegioididong và 437 cửa hàng DienmayXANH, với số cửa hàng Thegioididong đang trên đà vượt dự phóng cả năm 2017 của chúng tôi là 1.040 cửa hàng.

Trong 7 tháng 2017, MWG cũng mở thêm 90 cửa hàng BachhoaXANH, đưa tổng số cửa hàng lên 138 cửa hàng so với dự phóng 300 cửa hàng năm 2017 của chúng tôi, khi chúng tôi kỳ vọng tốc độ mở cửa hàng BachhoaXANH sẽ tăng tốc trong nửa cuối năm 2017. Doanh số/cửa hàng trung bình vẫn duy trì trên 40.000 USD dù mở thêm nhiều cửa hàng mới, cho thấy cải thiện vững chắc cho các cửa hàng hiện hữu.

LNST tháng 7/2017 tăng 31% so với tháng 7/2016, so với mức 28% trong 6 tháng 2017 so với 6 tháng 2016. Diễn biến này củng cố quan điểm của chúng tôi rằng tăng trưởng LN sẽ tăng tốc trong nửa cuối năm 2017, đặc biệt là từ tháng 9, khi một vài chi phí lớn như chiến dịch marketing cho DienmayXANH và mức tăng thưởng tiền mặt cho CB-CNV chủ yếu được phân bổ nửa cuối năm 2016 thay vì được phân bổ đều trong cả năm 2017, khiến 6 tháng 2016 có mức cơ sở so sánh cao tính theo biên LNST. Biên LNST 7 tháng 2017 của MWG đạt 3,4%, phù hợp với dự báo 3,4% của chúng tôi cho cả năm 2017.

Nhìn chung, KQKD này phù hợp với dự báo của chúng tôi. Chúng tôi giữ khuyến nghị MUA cho MWG với giá mục tiêu 148.000 đồng (tổng mức sinh lời 36% bao gồm lợi suất cổ tức 0,7%).

 

VCSC Research

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Stocks

Vietnamese banks are playing a risky game in retail financial services

by finandlife30/08/2017 08:47

By Shenming Wang and Christian Kapfer. Source: http://www.theasianbanker.com

Economies of scale, profitability, and developing a comprehensive service proposition remain major challenges in Vietnam’s growing retail banking industry. A long-term sustainable future will depend on how banks execute a right risk-reward balance

Differentiation, profitability, and customer-oriented digital adoption remain major challenges in Vietnam’s growing retail banking industry

Key challenges in applying transformative technological change in retail banking processes are organisational commitment and external and internal communication

Digital adoption is helping drive financial inclusion in Vietnam, as mobile banking connects thousands to credit and financial services

The retail financial services industry in Vietnam will become the top growth market in Asia Pacific this year. It is expected to surge by 29% in regard to retail assets compared to 2016 and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail income in Vietnam will reach $6.5 billion by 2020 (Figure 1). It is a largely untapped market in ASEAN, with a 20% banked population, and only 6% own a credit card. Many Vietnamese are optimistic of the future with 6% economic growth trending recently, and looking to invest high domestic savings. Vietnamese banks are shifting from corporates to retail, amid ample deposits and low corporate credit growth.

Five years ago, the Vietnamese government initiated a restructuring plan for the recapitalization of the five state banks, and the implementation of Basel II and other international standards are encouraging public confidence. Economic growth is gaining momentum after facing the bad debt crisis between 2012 and 2013, which depressed top line growth and caused high nonperforming loans (NPLs) (Figure 2).

But the retail banking industry faces four core hallenges amidst the improving financial environment: product offering remains undifferentiated, processes and infrastructure are relatively weak, low profitability is hindering development and adaptability, and developing a comprehensive service proposition attuned to customer needs.

Need to differentiate due to steep price competition

Retail banking only started to grow in 2015, and banks articulated their new 2020 strategy in 2016. The strategy, which for the first time involved board members and CEOs of local banks, addressed the need to make retail banking a key growth driver. The Vietnamese retail banking market, after seeing the launch of new and basic products, is shifting its focus from sales to market share and pricing. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) wants to see more consolidation and under World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) rules, foreign players in retail financial services market will be granted full access by 2018. While banks are building up their asset portfolio, longer term interest rate pricing capabilities and asset classes without collaterals are emerging.

In this early stage of retail banking evolution, Vietnamese banks are differentiating themselves by launching more sophisticated products such as cash and liquidity management tools for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) or new asset classes in wealth management.

However, local banks are already trapped in a destructive pricing loop. They are under pressure to maintain net interest rates ranging from 2.3% to 4.6%.

In addition, banks are seeking opportunities to cross-sell to existing customers, and to introduce more fee-based products such as insurance and credit cards. Yet, the key to winning this game is service and customer-focused sales. New business models are being introduced and implemented to turn away from being capital heavy and asset heavy, into a more transactional services and service-oriented business model.

Low customer loyalty and a high propensity to switch banks remains a major challenge for banks. In fact, customer base segmentation is more pronounced in Vietnam compared to Indonesia or the Philippines. However, it is still too early to understand how these segments affect purchase and service behaviour.

Implementing Basel II

At the start of 2017, SBV issued a directive targeted at restructuring financial institutions and to deal with impaired loans, moving the industry to operate within the framework of Basel II and eventually bring banks closer to meeting international standards. Basel is the set of international banking regulations put forward by the Basel committee on bank supervision, setting minimum capital requirements for banks and requires them to apply risk management methods.

Data from SBV indicates that the Vietnamese financial industry has made good progress in lowering the NPL ratio, from a high of about 4.93% in 2012, to about 2.46% in the fourth quarter of 2016. While this is good progress, implementing international banking standards will help the industry find a right risk-reward balance and ensure a long-term sustainable future.

Applying Basel II standards in Vietnam is necessary to integrate the financial industry into the global banking system, protect customers, and reduce risks and mistakes as the industry scales, and new more sophisticated financial products are introduced. In an SBV issued circular recently, commercial banks are directed to maintain a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of at least 8% from 2020. According to a report from the National Financial Supervisory Commission, the minimum CAR of the entire Vietnamese banking system in 2017 is estimated at 11.3%.

BIDV was among ten top banks selected to pilot Basel II implementation and has been active in consolidating risk and financial data for the purpose of Basel compliance. BIDV has set up 4 stress test scenarios, reflecting real movements in the Vietnamese financial market in 2008, to identify adverse changes depending on portfolio characteristics. Stress-testing conduction complying with Basel recommendations helps BIDV identify material risk and measure the potential capital losses, this has led the bank to restructure portfolios bearing market risk.

Focusing on improving processes and infrastructure

Banks that invested in new loan origination and collection systems are beginning to take a greater focus on front line automation. Most banks have centralised credit decision processes, standardised sales, and reduced paperwork for loan applications, though many continue to rely heavily on manual customer data transfer. There is also a propensity for most progressive banks to link with credit bureaus in order to establish and integrate an automated decision making process. This capability will allow these banks to approve loans almost instantly for certain customer segments.

While banks are fixing their attention on strengthening their operational and credit risk management, they are also increasingly shifting their spotlight on building a developed management information system (MIS) and customer relationship management (CRM) infrastructure. Further investment in technology, risk management and front-line customer service will be critical to gain competitive advantage in this market.

Digitisation has the potential be a game changer in every facet of Vietnamese retail banking, creating more opportunities by combining existing products and new revenue pools to open new markets. Banking services can be personalised to each customer profile with the integration of big data analytics, drawing from traditional data and alternative data sources, chatbots or artificial intelligence (AI) financial advisors.

Digitisation and market risk

Many banks in Vietnam are embarking on digitisation strategies to create new opportunities to improve service quality and optimise operating costs. Banks like Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VP Bank) are re-engineering their processes towards automation and digitisation, digitising service delivery channels to be accessed through computers and mobile devices.

VP Bank maintains a slightly higher NPL ratio compared to the national average, reportedly at 2.9% at the end of 2016 while the national average according to SBV stands at 2.46%. VP Bank is working to reduce this ratio through big data utilisation to generate a scoring model of retail customers for credit approval and processing. This is to effectively control risks associated with its large volume growth of retail products.

The bank has also begun regular computation of its CAR as per Basel and SBV requirements, improving risk governance according to Basel recommendations. Moving into 2018, data quality, and the implementation of integrated risk solutions will be top priorities for the bank. It also focused on training staff to build their skills and expertise through 150 training sessions over the past year by international compliance professionals.

Current state of play

Prior to 2012, foreign banks have dominated the mortgage market in Vietnam but today, local banks are the major players. The buying behaviour of consumers is moving slowly from all cash purchases to mortgage credit. Mortgage loans account for about 8% of total bank lending compared to Indonesia and the Philippines with 10.5% and 8.2% respectively. Yet, new properties that were launched in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have started to unbalance housing demand and supply, which had lower industry growth in 2016 compared to 2015. It remains to be seen whether mortgages or home ownership will tilt in the future. 

We estimate that the credit card market will grow by close to 40% annually in 2017. Banks are bearing a high risk but are expected to get high returns. The launch of platinum and co-branded cards was a key driver in 2016, but local banks rely too much on filling product gaps and imitating the credit cards of foreign banks.

Everybody wants to knock off HSBC in the premier card segment, yet most lack a more comprehensive service proposition. With aggressive acquisition strategies, there are increasing incidences where local banks are lowering their application standards to as low as $90 for their monthly income. The risk appetite is even higher for mid-tier and smaller banks. Industry credit card delinquencies have risen and range between 3% and 14% among the banks we have met or spoken to.

Profitability measured by return on equity (ROE) in the credit card business remains low or negative for most banks, partly to blame for this is the small portfolio. Most banks manage a portfolio which is only one-tenth of other banks in emerging markets within ASEAN. More forward-looking Vietnamese banks focus on individual products and account level instead of understanding customer lifetime’s value to improve profitability and manage losses.

Profitability also remains an issue in wealth management. While banks have set up their emerging and mass affluent segments, they desperately lack scale, the capability of needs-based analysis and a true wealth proposition. The contribution of investment and insurance fee income to total wealth income remains low. The car industry is currently enjoying early growth and is expected to mature by around 2025. The demand for auto loans will become stronger in the coming years but risk might be building up in the car segment too with a slew of new and cheaper cars emerging in 2017, in addition to rising delinquencies in banks’ portfolios.

The regulator is forcing banks to set up separate financial companies to handle the high risk areas and to protect the full entity from any potential fall outs. Under the central bank’s directive, lenders are also required to merge or go bankrupt as it plans to reduce the total number of banks to as few as 15 by 2017 from almost 40 in December 2016.

Transformative effects of financial technology

Vietnam is already in the midst of its second financial technology (fintech) wave, the first wave saw many fintech companies enter and leave the industry. A new layer of technology is set to shift the focus of productivity from being bank-centric to enabling customer-driven productivity and scale. This will be driven by cost-effective deployment of artificial intelligence and robotics, leading to higher productivity at lower cost.

Technological changes are being embraced throughout the region with a speed and scale that risk leaving many Vietnamese banks behind. While banks are good at buying technology, they often struggle to decide how it fits into their architecture. To be successful, banks need to start with customer experience, before working back to the technology.

At The Asian Banker The Future of Finance Vietnam, Steve Monaghan – chief innovation officer of Gen Life, an insurance platform – remarked that design is increasingly playing a bigger role in supporting financial technologies. In one of the conferences, three trends were identified as shaping the future of digital retail banking in Vietnam: data & AI, ubiquitous connectivity, the human touch.

The difficulties banks will face are the efficient use of resources and people, the industry needs skilled talent that can bridge banking with emerging technologies.

Banks need to capitalise on their competitive advantage to attract the right level of talent, providing capital and equity in strategic partnerships or acquisitions. By focusing on people and training, taking the time to work on product development and governance, management quality translates into better business.

Key challenges in applying transformative technological change in retail banking processes are organisational commitment and external and internal communication. Leadership needs to understand that shifting the traditional banking model will incur initial costs without immediate benefits; communicating with stakeholders, customers, and staff is also important to ensure that digital adoption is successful.

Digital first strategy

Several newer banks apply technological change in retail banking faster and more extensively than others, due to their absence of legacy processes and mind set. Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TP Bank) was established in 2008 and has clear strategic priorities to be the best digital bank in Vietnam.

TP Bank already has a strong fintech foundation and an advantage in applying new technologies for automated and digital banking solutions and product development. It deployed new products in 2016 to increase fee incomes and better meet customer demands through sales promotions, partnerships, and other sales acceleration programmes.

The bank’s “LiveBank” project diversified the channels of  banking transactions and provide 24/7 customer service, offering more access points to banking services to expand customer accessibility and reduce transaction times. Other apps and applications are leveraging innovative market technologies like biometrics to help log in and authenticate transactions via fingerprints.

Critically, TP Bank was able to keep its NPL ratio well below the required level set by SBV, ending 2016 with only 0.7% NPL, a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous year. TP Bank is actively strengthening its risk management towards Basel II compliance, with standards equivalent to the top ten domestic Vietnamese Banks.

Driving financial inclusivity

As economic growth gains momentum, the focus is on increasing financial inclusivity in Vietnam where the banking penetration is around 20%. Established banks who fail to address inclusivity will lose out when other business and start-ups enter and turn it into interesting and innovative businesses that capture market share. Regulators are stepping aside and opening the way for the private sector to drive financial inclusion, fintech is driving down transaction costs and opening access to the market.

The speed and scale of companies driving financial inclusion is challenging the fundamentals of banking in Vietnam, and lowering transaction cost is one of the primary strategies to remain profitable. Companies and financial institutions that cannot handle cost and risk effectively will lose out in the long-run.

Retail banks in Vietnam must evolve into an adaptive business culture, deepening their understanding and feedback from customers. The past eight years in Vietnam has seen the emergence of a more

collaborative financial ecosystem, as regulators, banks, fintech and consumers cooperatively take ownership in terms of designing products and technology services.

Regulators are encouraging different companies into the ecosystem to create competition, banks no longer view fintech as competitors but as opportunities, and consumers are more intelligent looking for products and services that are fast and convenient.

Striking the right balance

In Vietnam’s rapidly growing retail financial services environment, banks are bearing high risks but expecting high returns. Customer service and customer-centric selling usually fall short as demand outpaces supply. Distribution and sales in a fast growing pie are critical to banks. In this early stage of retail banking evolution banks are under pressure to improve product offerings while dealing with high interest rates, as they change their business model to be more service and transactional focused. As the profile of retail banking shifts mortgages, credit cards, and wealth management are under consolidation efforts and foreign competition, making the industry a risky place to be in.

Additionally, digital adoption is helping drive financial inclusion in Vietnam, as mobile banking connects thousands to credit and financial services. Unburdened by legacy systems and mind sets, Vietnam is in a unique position to take full advantage of the digital banking movement. Banks are aware that differentiation, profitability and a customer oriented digital strategy remain major challenges in the emerging retail banking industry. If they are able to execute the right risk-reward balance, a long-term sustainable future is waiting.

 

Source: http://www.theasianbanker.com

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Economics | Stocks

VPB hàng t về 22/8/2017

by finandlife22/08/2017 11:35

Closing

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Stocks

Stock Review August 2017

by finandlife19/08/2017 23:36

PNJ [MUA +31,9%] - Tăng tốc mở cửa hàng trên nguồn vốn mới - Cập nhật

Chúng tôi giữ khuyến nghị MUA cho PNJ với tổng mức sinh lời 32%, gồm 2% lợi suất cổ tức. Chúng tôi nâng giá mục tiêu thêm 9% lên 126.000 đồng nhờ tăng 7% dự phóng LNST 2017, tái tục mô hình định giá, mạnh hơn ảnh hưởng từ WACC tăng 0,8 điểm % và số cổ phiếu tăng. Định giá hấp dẫn với PEG cốt lõi 3 năm đạt 0,6 theo thị giá. Dự phóng LNST 2017 tăng chủ yếu do việc chi phí bán hàng tăng chậm hơn dự phóng và thu nhập từ lãi nhận được từ vốn mới huy động.

VCSC

1H2017 DT = 5.5k tỷ, +39%yoy, LNST = 378 tỷ, +54%yoy. Mỗi tháng doanh thu trung bình đạt >850 tỷ, LNTT >72 tỷ. Sự tăng trưởng này chủ yếu đến từ high-margin retail segment and open new stores.

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PTB [Nắm giữ]

Kết quả kinh doanh Quý 2/2017 tiếp tục khả quan. Doanh thu Quý 2/2017 đạt 1.020 tỷ đồng (+7,5% yoy), lũy kế 6 tháng đầu năm 2017 đạt 1.943 tỷ đồng (+10,7% yoy). Doanh thu từ hoạt động khai thác và sản xuất đá ốp lát đạt 534 tỷ (+15% yoy). Doanh thu hoạt động sản xuất gỗ đạt 638 tỷ đồng (+27% yoy). Ngược lại, doanh thu kinh doanh xe Toyota đạt 707 tỷ đồng, giảm nhẹ 3% yoy. Biên lợi nhuận gộp cải thiện từ mức 13,9% trong Q2/2016 lên mức 16% trong Q2/2017. Lợi nhuận sau thuế công ty mẹ Q2/2017 đạt 84,6 tỷ (+62% yoy).

Hoạt động sản xuất đá sẽ tăng trưởng tích cực trong 6 tháng cuối năm, nhờ các nhà máy mới. Theo thông tin từ PTB, nhà máy Hưng Yên sản xuất đá granite và marble nhập khẩu, sau khi đi vào hoạt động từ Q1/2017, đã hoạt động hết công suất. Cùng với nhà máy Đồng Nai giai đoạn 2 và nhà máy Bình Định mới hoạt động từ tháng 10/2016, chúng tôi dự báo các nhà máy sẽ hoạt động tối đa công suất trong 6 tháng cuối năm 2017, giúp tổng sản lượng tiêu thụ tăng 23% yoy.

Nhà máy gỗ Phù Cát đi vào hoạt động giai đoạn 1. Vào ngày 31/7/2017, PTB công bố thông tin nhà máy gỗ Phù Cát đi vào hoạt động giai đoạn 1 với công suất 20.000 m3/năm, sản phẩm chính là gỗ ép. Trong đó, 60-70% sản lượng sẽ được bán ra bên ngoài, còn lại cung cấp nội bộ. Hiện tại đã có khách hàng cho giai đoạn 1 của nhà máy. Theo dự báo của VNDIRECT, doanh thu từ nhà máy gỗ Phù Cát sẽ đạt 110 tỷ đồng trong năm 2017. 

VNDirect

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ACB [MUA]

Kết quả kinh doanh 1H2017

– LNTT đạt 980 tỷ đồng (+48% y/y) hoàn thành 57% kế họach năm

– Tăng trưởng tín dụng đạt 11,2% ytd và huy động đạt 11,2% ytd

Dự phóng 2017: LNST đạt 1.842 tỷ đồng (+38,1% y/y) và VCSH đạt 15.864 tỷ đồng (+13% y/y), tương ứng với EPS 1.869 đồng và BVPS 16.090 đồng. Dự phóng LN tăng 7% so với dự phóng ban đầu (1.751 tỷ đồng) với những thay đổi chủ yếu sau:

1) Tín dụng tăng nhanh hơn vào cuối năm nhờ yếu tố mùa vụ

2) Hoạt động dịch vụ tích cực nhờ dịch vụ thể và kết nối fintech

3) Lợi nhuận đột biến từ việc thu hồi trái phiếu liên quan đến Nhóm 6 công ty, đã được trích lập trong năm 2016

4) Trích lập dự phòng đối với các khoản nợ nội bảng tăng trong khi dự phòng đối với các khoản nợ liên quan đến Nhóm 6 công ty và nợ bán cho VAMC vẫn đang diên ra đúng tiến độ

Chúng tôi khuyến nghị TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG đối với ACB với giá mục tiêu 30.300 đồng (tăng 8% so với giá mục tiêu ban đầu), cao hơn 20% so với mức giá hiện tại.

 

KISVN

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Stocks

Ngày giao dịch đầu tiên chứng khoán phái sinh 10/08/2017

by finandlife10/08/2017 17:38

Tổng kết phiên đầu tiên Golive phái sinh hợp đồng tương lai chỉ số VN30, tổng có 487 hợp đồng được giao dịch, với giá trị 36.4 tỷ đồng, tương đương 3.6 tỷ đồng tiền tươi ký quỹ (giả sử tỷ lệ ký quỹ đúng bằng 10%).

Nói chung còn khá nhỏ bé, và ít người chơi.

Đóng cửa, kỳ hạn càng ngắn càng gần mức đóng của 743.42 điểm của thị trường cơ sở, kỳ hạn càng xa thì càng chênh lệch, kỳ hạn 15/3/2018 chênh lệch đến gần 2%. Tất cả các kỳ hạn đều đóng cửa cao hơn chỉ số cơ sở cho thấy thị trường vẫn còn bullish trong tương lai.

Điểm hay là tại ngày đáo hạn, 2 bên sẽ thanh toán đúng bằng chỉ số cơ sở, nên dù không được đảm bảo = tài sản cơ sở như các ETF, thì hợp đồng chỉ số cũng sẽ không diễn biến quá xa so với Index.

Lúc trước thì các đồng nghiệp hay cá với nhau thị trường tuần này xanh hay đỏ, thì giờ không cần phải cá nhau nữa, cứ lên đó long/short, rồi nếu đi chệch thì có thể close position, còn nếu vẫn giữ đến ngày đáo hạn thì có các công ty chứng khoán, VSD, ngân hàng thanh toán bù trừ, UBCK, sở GD, đảm bảo thanh toán, khỏi cãi.

 

Nguồn: FINANDLIFE

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Psychology | Stocks

DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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