KINH TẾ VIỆT NAM TĂNG TRƯỞNG TỐT TRONG Q2/2022

by finandlife29/06/2022 10:05

 "Nothing is softer or more flexible than water, yet nothing can resist it." Lao Tzu 

Doanh số bán xe hơi theo tháng, nguồn VAMA

 

GDP quý II tăng 7,72%, mức cao nhất quý II trong giai đoạn 2011-2022. Tính chung 6 tháng đầu năm, GDP tăng 6,42%. 

Các kết quả vĩ mô khác như sau:

* Chỉ số SXCN (IIP) tháng 6 tăng 11,5% YoY, nâng tăng trưởng IIP 6 tháng đầu năm lên 8,7% YoY. Ngành sản xuất, chế biến chế tạo là động lực tăng trưởng chính với mức tăng trưởng 13,1% YoY trong tháng 6 và 9,7% trong 6T 2022. 

* Tổng mức bán lẻ hàng hóa và dịch vụ tiêu dung tăng mạnh 27,3% YoY trong tháng 6. Tính chung 6T 2022, tổng mức bán lẻ tăng 11,7% YoY, nếu loại trừ yếu tố giá tăng 7,9% YoY (so với mức 1,9% cùng kỳ năm 2021).

* Xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu tăng 20% YoY và 16,3% YoY trong tháng 6, lần lượt đạt 32,6 tỷ USD và 32,4 tỷ USD, dẫn đến xuất siêu 276 triệu USD trong tháng 6. Tính chung 6T 2022, tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu lần lượt đạt 185,9 tỷ USD (+17.3% YoY) và 185,2 tỷ USD (+15,5% YoY), qua đó ghi nhận xuất siêu 710 triệu USD trong nửa đầu năm 2022 (cùng nhập siêu 1,9 tỷ USD).

* Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) tháng 6 tăng 0,69% so với tháng trước và 3,37% so với cùng kỳ chủ yếu do giá xăng dầu tăng. CPI trung bình 6T 2022 tăng 2,44% YoY, mức thấp thứ 2 kể từ năm 2017 đến nay (chỉ cao hơn mức tăng 1,47% trong 6T 2021).

VCSC RESEARCH

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Economics

CENTRAL BANK SNAPSHOT 20/6/2022

by finandlife20/06/2022 08:13

“Tell me and I forget, teach me and I may remember, involve me and I learn.”

Benjamin Franklin

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Economics

Vietnam’s Stock Market Bounced From The Bottom. More Gains Ahead

by finandlife10/06/2022 08:18

“Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.” Lao Tzu

Michael Kokalari, CFA

Chief Economist, Vinacapital

Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index (VNI) has rebounded by 12% since hitting a bottom on May 16th, driven by a modest thawing of recent bearish sentiment in global stock markets over the last few weeks, and by positive developments in Vietnam. Specifically, the expectation that the Fed may pause its rate hikes boosted global stock markets, while the easing of COVID restrictions in China improved sentiment towards Vietnam’s stock market, and some of the Vietnam-specific concerns that weighed heavily on the VNI in May – which are discussed below - have eased.

In addition, as can be seen in the chart above, Vietnam’s economic recovery continued to accelerate in May. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s stock market is still cheap at an 11.5x forward P/E versus our expectation for EPS earnings growth of over 20% in 2022, and versus an average 16.2x forward P/E ratio for Vietnam’s EM ASEAN peers. All of this sets the stage for further gains in the VNI as 2022 progresses and we see signs that both foreign and Vietnamese investors agree.

Even as the market sold off, foreign investors bought over USD150 million in stocks in May (including about USD125 million of foreign inflows into ETFs) after having sold around USD290 million worth of stocks in Q1. In addition, Vietnam’s stock market trading volume plunged by over 33% month-on-month in May, implying that Vietnamese retail investors were not panicked into selling the stocks they held as the market declined during the month. We believe the confidence exhibited by both local and foreign investors stems in part from the 33% yoy surge in Vietnam’s earnings growth in Q1, which in-turn should also help drive further gains for the VN-Index later this year, although the next 2-3 months are likely to be fairly volatile.

This volatility, coupled with performance dispersion among the stocks and sectors1 in the market, will likely present active managers like VinaCapital ample opportunities to out-perform the benchmark VN-Index. For example, as of yesterday VinaCapital’s UCITS fund, VVF, outperformed the VNI by over 15%pts YTD (the fund’s NAV increased by 1% versus a 14.1% drop in the VNI, in USD terms), and that outperformance is partly attributable to 38% expected earnings growth for the stocks held by the fund.

Positive Developments in Vietnam Boosted the Market

We believe four developments are currently supporting local investor sentiment:

1) The perception that the recent wave of margin-prompted selling is over

2) The announcement of a 2% interest rate subsidy by the Government to support SMEs and other businesses

3) Continued positive developments in the economy – including a record yoy surge of retail sales in May

4) The growing perception that current global events will benefit Vietnam’s economy.

Further to that last point, several of Vietnam’s key leaders, including Prime Minister Chinh, have made highly visible statements in recent weeks about how recent world developments will benefit Vietnam’s FDI inflows2, and help other areas of the economy, as well as the Government’s continued commitment to infrastructure development. Further to #1 above, we estimate that the total amount of stock market margin outstanding has dropped by more than 30% from its peak earlier this year. Further to #2 above, on May 20th, the Government formally deployed a previously announced scheme to subsidize loans to SMEs and other targeted businesses (including those in the tourism sector) by 2%pts. This interest rate subsidy program is a component of the Government’s 4%/GDP fiscal stimulus package which we discussed in this report, and the announcement of this subsidy significantly boosted investor sentiment.

Next, Vietnam’s economic statistics for May confirmed what we have discussed in our reports all year. The post-COVID economic recovery is going to be much stronger than most analysts had previously expected, driven by a resurgence of domestic consumption and foreign tourist arrivals. We are still forecasting 6.5% GDP growth this year, but we see increasing upside to that forecast, and are aware of some forecasts that are as high as 9% for GDP growth this year.

In short, the jump in Vietnam’s retail sales has dramatically accelerated as 2022 has progressed (as can be seen in the table on page 1) and Vietnam’s manufacturing sector output grew by 9% yoy in 5M22, which is a much stronger performance than we expected. Vietnam’s PMI index rose from 51.7 in April, to 54.7 in May – the biggest one-month acceleration in over a year – driven by an acceleration in new orders.

Regulatory Issues Weighed on the Market in May

In addition to all the Vietnam-specific factors discussed above, the Government’s renewed efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight of Vietnam’s stock and bond markets initially fuelled the sell-off in the stock market in April and in the first half of May. However, on May 20th, several leadership changes were announced at the State Securities Commission (SSC) and HCM Stock Exchange (HOSE) 3 , which helped investors to start looking beyond the recent anti-corruption drive.

In addition, there were concerns that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) would curtail the flow of credit to the real estate market, following recent guidance on this issue. This was another Vietnam-specific factor that had been weighing on the stock market. However, it now appears that the SBV’s guidance urging banks to be prudent in their real estate lending – which was issued in conjunction with the Government’s other regulatory crackdown activities – was comparable to guidance that it has regularly issued over the last few years.

Furthermore, this week a senior official gave guidance during a press conference that the SBV does not aim to curtail the flow of credit to the real estate sector, but is instead monitoring the situation closely. Finally, corporate bond issuance by real estate companies plunged in April, but loan growth to the sector probably outpaced overall credit growth YTD, and developers’ pre-sales are reportedly strong, which will limit their need to borrow money.

Conclusions

The recent bounce in the VN-Index was driven by a thawing of sentiment towards global stock markets, as well as by an easing of investors’ concerns about some Vietnam-specific factors discussed above. Importantly, we estimate that outstanding stock margin levels have fallen by about 30%, which has washed out the most aggressive source of selling pressure in May, paving the way for a further recovery in the market. Finally, we expect earnings growth of over 20% for Vietnam’s stock market this year, although we expect earnings for the companies in our funds will grow by over 35%, which helps explain why those stocks are trading at an even lower P/E valuation multiple than the overall market.

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Economics

US Inflation 2022

by finandlife23/05/2022 09:03

Tags:

Economics

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement 5/2022

by finandlife05/05/2022 08:46

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement

May 4, 2022

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. It’s nice to see everyone in person for the first time in a couple years. Before I go into the details of today’s meeting, I’d like to take this opportunity to speak directly to the American people. Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship (gian nan)it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two years and have proved resilient (kiên cường).It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

From the standpoint of our Congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability, the current picture is plain to see: The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high. Against this backdrop, today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target rate for the federal funds rate will be appropriate (phù hợp). In addition, we are beginning the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. I’ll have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

After expanding at a robust 5-1/2 percent pace last year, overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter. Underlying momentum remains strong, however, as the decline largely reflected swings in inventories and net exports, two volatile categories whose movements last quarter likely carry little signal for future growth. Indeed, household spending and business fixed investment continued to expand briskly (nhanh chóng).

The labor market has continued to strengthen and is extremely tight. Over the first three months of the year, employment rose by nearly 1.7 million jobs. In March, the unemployment rate hit a post-pandemic and near five-decade low of 3.6 percent. Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics. Labor demand is very strong, and while labor force participation has increased somewhat, labor supply remains subdued (giảm).Employers are having difficulties filling job openings, and wages are rising at the fastest pace in many years.

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in March, total PCE prices rose 6.6 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 5.2 percent. Aggregate demand is strong, and bottlenecks and supply constraints are limiting how quickly production can respond. Disruptions to supply have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, and price pressures have spread to a broader range of goods and services. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating additional upward pressure on inflation. And COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to further exacerbate supply chain disruptions as well.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing tremendous loss and hardship, and our thoughts and sympathies are with the people of Ukraine. Our job is to consider the implications for the U.S. economy, which remain highly uncertain. In addition to the effects on inflation, the invasion and related events are likely to restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, creating spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade and other channels.

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to restoring price stability.

Against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment, our policy has been adapting, and it will continue to do so. At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point and stated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. We also decided to begin the process of reducing the size of our balance sheet, which will play an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy. We are on a path to move our policy rate expeditiously to more normal levels. Assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in line with expectations, there is a broad sense on the Committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings. We will make our decisions meeting by meeting, as we learn from incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. And we will continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.

With regard to our balance sheet, we also issued our specific plans for reducing our securities holdings. Consistent with the principles we issued in January, we intend to significantly reduce the size of our balance sheet over time in a predictable manner by allowing the principal payments from our securities holdings to roll off the balance sheet, up to monthly cap amounts. For Treasury securities, the cap will be $30 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon securities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills. For agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $17.5 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $35 billion per month.

At the current level of mortgage rates, the actual pace of agency MBS runoff would likely be less than this monthly cap amount. Our balance sheet decisions are guided by our maximum employment and price stability goals, and in that regard, we will be prepared to adjust any of the details of our approach in light of economic and financial developments. Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time. We are highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

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Economics

DISCLAIMER

I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.

 

To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.

 

Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

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