Fed nâng thêm 25 điểm cơ bản lãi suất

by finandlife02/02/2023 07:45

Fed tăng lãi suất thêm 0.25% (4,5% -4,75%) (như mong đợi) và báo hiệu sẽ tiếp tục.  Nhưng các thị trường đang phản ứng tích cực, LÃI SUẤT TRÁI PHIẾU GIẢM, ĐÔ LA GIẢM, VÀNG TĂNG, BITCOIN TĂNG VÀ CỔ PHIẾU (đặc biệt là các lĩnh vực dài hạn) TĂNG (Nasdaq +1,8%).

Vì :

1) Thị trường đã dự đoán xấu hơn

2) Powell nói rõ rằng chúng ta sắp kết thúc quá trình thắt chặt ('chúng ta không còn xa mức cao nhất nữa' + 'chúng ta sẽ theo dõi cẩn thận nền kinh tế và quá trình giảm lạm phát');

3) “Không có động cơ, mong muốn thắt chặt quá mức”.  Đây có lẽ là câu ôn hòa mà thị trường đang mong đợi; 

4) Powell lưu ý rằng các điều kiện tài chính đã thắt chặt rất đáng kể trong năm qua. 



Monetary Policy and Price Stability

by finandlife29/08/2022 17:37

Chair Jerome H. Powell

Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.

At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.

The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, "Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations."2

One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention."3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: "For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions."4

Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

1. See Ben Bernanke (2004), "The Great Moderation," speech delivered at the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, February 20; Ben Bernanke (2022), "Inflation Isn't Going to Bring Back the 1970s," New York Times, June 14. Return to text

2. See Paul A. Volcker (1979), "Statement before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, October 17, 1979," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 65 (November), p. 888. Return to text

3. A review of the applications of rational inattention in monetary economics appears in Christopher A. Sims (2010), "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," in Benjamin M. Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds., Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3 (Amsterdam: North-Holland), pp. 155–81. Return to text

4. See Alan Greenspan (1989), "Statement before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, February 21, 1989," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 75 (April), pp. 274–75. Return to text

Last Update: August 26, 2022

Tags: ,


Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement 5/2022

by finandlife05/05/2022 08:46

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement

May 4, 2022

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. It’s nice to see everyone in person for the first time in a couple years. Before I go into the details of today’s meeting, I’d like to take this opportunity to speak directly to the American people. Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship (gian nan)it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. The economy and the country have been through a lot over the past two years and have proved resilient (kiên cường).It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

From the standpoint of our Congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability, the current picture is plain to see: The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high. Against this backdrop, today the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target rate for the federal funds rate will be appropriate (phù hợp). In addition, we are beginning the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet. I’ll have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

After expanding at a robust 5-1/2 percent pace last year, overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter. Underlying momentum remains strong, however, as the decline largely reflected swings in inventories and net exports, two volatile categories whose movements last quarter likely carry little signal for future growth. Indeed, household spending and business fixed investment continued to expand briskly (nhanh chóng).

The labor market has continued to strengthen and is extremely tight. Over the first three months of the year, employment rose by nearly 1.7 million jobs. In March, the unemployment rate hit a post-pandemic and near five-decade low of 3.6 percent. Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics. Labor demand is very strong, and while labor force participation has increased somewhat, labor supply remains subdued (giảm).Employers are having difficulties filling job openings, and wages are rising at the fastest pace in many years.

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in March, total PCE prices rose 6.6 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 5.2 percent. Aggregate demand is strong, and bottlenecks and supply constraints are limiting how quickly production can respond. Disruptions to supply have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, and price pressures have spread to a broader range of goods and services. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating additional upward pressure on inflation. And COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to further exacerbate supply chain disruptions as well.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing tremendous loss and hardship, and our thoughts and sympathies are with the people of Ukraine. Our job is to consider the implications for the U.S. economy, which remain highly uncertain. In addition to the effects on inflation, the invasion and related events are likely to restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, creating spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade and other channels.

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to restoring price stability.

Against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment, our policy has been adapting, and it will continue to do so. At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point and stated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. We also decided to begin the process of reducing the size of our balance sheet, which will play an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy. We are on a path to move our policy rate expeditiously to more normal levels. Assuming that economic and financial conditions evolve in line with expectations, there is a broad sense on the Committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings. We will make our decisions meeting by meeting, as we learn from incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. And we will continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.

With regard to our balance sheet, we also issued our specific plans for reducing our securities holdings. Consistent with the principles we issued in January, we intend to significantly reduce the size of our balance sheet over time in a predictable manner by allowing the principal payments from our securities holdings to roll off the balance sheet, up to monthly cap amounts. For Treasury securities, the cap will be $30 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon securities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills. For agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $17.5 billion per month for three months and will then increase to $35 billion per month.

At the current level of mortgage rates, the actual pace of agency MBS runoff would likely be less than this monthly cap amount. Our balance sheet decisions are guided by our maximum employment and price stability goals, and in that regard, we will be prepared to adjust any of the details of our approach in light of economic and financial developments. Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time. We are highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

Tags: ,


Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID

by finandlife05/09/2021 10:11

Source: Fed

Strong policy support has fueled a vigorous but uneven recovery—one that is, in many respects, historically anomalous. In a reversal of typical patterns in a downturn, aggregate personal income rose rather than fell, and households massively shifted their spending from services to manufactured goods.

Chính sách hỗ trợ mạnh mẽ đã thúc đẩy một sự phục hồi mạnh mẽ nhưng không đồng đều. Tổng thu nhập cá nhân tăng chứ không giảm, các hộ gia đình chuyển mạnh từ chi tiêu dịch vụ sang hàng hóa sản xuất.

The result has been elevated inflation in durable goods—a sector that has experienced an annual inflation rate well below zero over the past quarter century.

Kết quả là lạm phát tăng cao đối với hang hóa lâu bền, điều chưa từng diễn ra trong suốt 25 năm qua.

In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval.

Hôm nay, tôi tập trung vào nỗ lực của Fed để tối đa lao động và ổn định giá cả trong bối cảnh đầy biến động.

The Recession and Recovery So Far

But the pace of the recovery has exceeded expectations, with output surpassing its previous peak after only four quarters, less than half the time required following the Great Recession.

Sự hồi phục vượt quá kỳ vọng, sản lượng vượt qua đỉnh chỉ sau 4 quý.

As the pandemic struck, restaurant meals fell 45 percent, air travel 95 percent, and dentist visits 65 percent.

Khi đại dịch xảy ra, nhà hàng giảm 45%, hàng không giảm 95%, và nha khoa giảm 65%.

In contrast, spending on durable goods (durable goods such as appliances, furniture, and cars) has boomed since the start of the recovery and is now running about 20 percent above the pre-pandemic level.

Trong khi đó, chi tiêu cho hàng hóa lâu bền như gia dụng, nội thất và xe hơi tăng mạnh và duy trì cao hơn 20% vs trước dịch.

The Path Ahead: Maximum Employment. Co đường phía trước: Tối đa hóa việc làm

The pace of total hiring is faster than at any time in the recorded data before the pandemic. The levels of job openings and quits are at record highs, and employers report that they cannot fill jobs fast enough to meet returning demand.

Tốc độ tuyển dụng cao hơn trước dịch.

The unemployment rate has declined to 5.4 percent, a post-pandemic low, but is still much too high.

Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giảm về mức 5.4%, mức thấp nhất kể từ khi có dịch, nhưng vẫn còn quá cao. (Trước dịch, tỷ lệ thất nghiệp của Mỹ <4%.)

With vaccinations rising, schools reopening, and enhanced unemployment benefits ending, some factors that may be holding back job seekers are likely fading.6 While the Delta variant presents a near-term risk, the prospects are good for continued progress toward maximum employment.

Việc gia tăng tiêm chủng, trường học mở của trở lại, và kết thúc trợ cấp thất nghiệp tăng cường,… triển vọng tốt để đạt tiến trình lao động tối đa.

The Path Ahead: Inflation

The rapid reopening of the economy has brought a sharp run-up in inflation. Over the 12 months through July, measures of headline and core personal consumption expenditures inflation have run at 4.2 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively—well above our 2 percent longer-run objective.

Tái mở của nhanh chóng nền kinh tế đã làm lạm phát tăng mạnh. Chí số giá tiêu dùng và core CPI đã tăng lần lượt 4.2% và 3.6%, cao hơn nhiều so với mục tiêu dài hạn 2%.

But that concern is tempered by a number of factors that suggest that these elevated readings are likely to prove temporary.

Nhưng lo ngại đó được làm dịu đi bởi hàng loạt nguyên do cho thấy sự tăng cao đó chỉ là tạm thời.

1. The absence so far of broad-based inflation pressures

Hàng hóa lâu bền đóng góp 1% tăng lên của chỉ số giá tiêu dùng headline và core.

Giá năng lượng tăng đóng góp 0.8% tăng lên của chỉ số giá headline

Với kinh nghiệm của Fed, 2 loại này chỉ tác động tạm thời.

2. Moderating inflation in higher-inflation items

3. Wages

But if wage increases were to move materially and persistently above the levels of productivity gains and inflation, businesses would likely pass those increases on to customers, a process that could become the sort of "wage–price spiral" seen at times in the past.

Nhưng nếu tiền lượng tăng cao hơn một cách bền vững so với năng suất và lạm phát, doanh nghiệp sẽ chuyển mức tăng đó cho người tiêu dùng, tiến trình kiểu vòng xoáy tiền lương như từng đã diễn ra trong quá khứ.

4. Longer-term inflation expectations

Việc duy trì kỳ vọng lạm phát dài hạn 2% là tốt cho cả việc làm và ổn định giá cả.

Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time.

Việc duy trì lạm phát kỳ vọng 2% cho thấy lạm phát hiện tại cao hơn mức này cũng chỉ là tạm thời.

5. The prevalence of global disinflationary forces over the past quarter century

The pattern of low inflation likely reflects sustained disinflationary forces, including technology, globalization and perhaps demographic factors, as well as a stronger and more successful commitment by central banks to maintain price stability.

Mô hình lạm phát thấp phản ánh những lực khử lạm phát bền vững bao gồm công nghệ, toàn cầu hóa và nhân khẩu học, cũng như cam kết mạnh mẽ bở các ngân hàng trung ương trong việc ổn định giá.

Implications for Monetary Policy. Hàm ý đối với chính sách tiền tệ

Tags: ,


Fed rate hike March 2017

by finandlife16/03/2017 08:55

Đây là lần thứ 3 Fed tăng lãi suất, lần đầu vào giữa tháng 12/2015, khi đó, Fed nâng lãi suất từ range 0%-0.25% lên 0.25%-0.5%. Lần thứ 2, vào giữa tháng 2/2016, nâng range lên 0.5%-0.75%. Và lần này, range lãi suất đã đẩy lên 0.75%-1%. Động thái này không gây bất ngờ, vì trước đó, vào giữa tháng 12/2016, Fed đã đề ra kế hoạch sẽ hành động như vậy.

The Fed lifted key rates by a quarter-point Wednesday to a range of 0.75% to 1%. 

“The markets are excited -- bonds, stocks, gold and everyone short the dollar -- because the Fed didn’t change their dot plot and thus remain on pace with 3 hikes this year in total,” said Peter Boockvar

Lần 1: Official FED Rate hike

Lần 2: US Fed raises rates for second time since Great Recession






I am currently serving as an Investment Manager at Vietcap Securities JSC, leveraging 16 years of experience in investment analysis. My journey began as a junior analyst at a fund in 2007, allowing me to cultivate a profound understanding of Vietnam's macroeconomics, conduct meticulous equity research, and actively pursue lucrative investment opportunities. Furthermore, I hold the position of Head of Derivatives, equipped with extensive knowledge and expertise in derivatives, ETFs, and CWs.


To document my insights and share personal perspectives, I maintain a private blog where I store valuable information. However, it is essential to acknowledge that the content provided on my blog is solely based on my own opinions and does not carry a guarantee of certainty. Consequently, I cannot assume responsibility for any trading or investing activities carried out based on the information shared. Nonetheless, I wholeheartedly welcome any questions or inquiries you may have. You can contact me via email at thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com.


Thank you for your understanding, and I eagerly anticipate engaging with you on topics concerning investments and finance.

Designed by: Nguyễn Chí Hiếu