Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID

by finandlife05/09/2021 10:11

Source: Fed

Strong policy support has fueled a vigorous but uneven recovery—one that is, in many respects, historically anomalous. In a reversal of typical patterns in a downturn, aggregate personal income rose rather than fell, and households massively shifted their spending from services to manufactured goods.

Chính sách hỗ trợ mạnh mẽ đã thúc đẩy một sự phục hồi mạnh mẽ nhưng không đồng đều. Tổng thu nhập cá nhân tăng chứ không giảm, các hộ gia đình chuyển mạnh từ chi tiêu dịch vụ sang hàng hóa sản xuất.

The result has been elevated inflation in durable goods—a sector that has experienced an annual inflation rate well below zero over the past quarter century.

Kết quả là lạm phát tăng cao đối với hang hóa lâu bền, điều chưa từng diễn ra trong suốt 25 năm qua.

In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval.

Hôm nay, tôi tập trung vào nỗ lực của Fed để tối đa lao động và ổn định giá cả trong bối cảnh đầy biến động.

The Recession and Recovery So Far

But the pace of the recovery has exceeded expectations, with output surpassing its previous peak after only four quarters, less than half the time required following the Great Recession.

Sự hồi phục vượt quá kỳ vọng, sản lượng vượt qua đỉnh chỉ sau 4 quý.

As the pandemic struck, restaurant meals fell 45 percent, air travel 95 percent, and dentist visits 65 percent.

Khi đại dịch xảy ra, nhà hàng giảm 45%, hàng không giảm 95%, và nha khoa giảm 65%.

In contrast, spending on durable goods (durable goods such as appliances, furniture, and cars) has boomed since the start of the recovery and is now running about 20 percent above the pre-pandemic level.

Trong khi đó, chi tiêu cho hàng hóa lâu bền như gia dụng, nội thất và xe hơi tăng mạnh và duy trì cao hơn 20% vs trước dịch.

The Path Ahead: Maximum Employment. Co đường phía trước: Tối đa hóa việc làm

The pace of total hiring is faster than at any time in the recorded data before the pandemic. The levels of job openings and quits are at record highs, and employers report that they cannot fill jobs fast enough to meet returning demand.

Tốc độ tuyển dụng cao hơn trước dịch.

The unemployment rate has declined to 5.4 percent, a post-pandemic low, but is still much too high.

Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp giảm về mức 5.4%, mức thấp nhất kể từ khi có dịch, nhưng vẫn còn quá cao. (Trước dịch, tỷ lệ thất nghiệp của Mỹ <4%.)

With vaccinations rising, schools reopening, and enhanced unemployment benefits ending, some factors that may be holding back job seekers are likely fading.6 While the Delta variant presents a near-term risk, the prospects are good for continued progress toward maximum employment.

Việc gia tăng tiêm chủng, trường học mở của trở lại, và kết thúc trợ cấp thất nghiệp tăng cường,… triển vọng tốt để đạt tiến trình lao động tối đa.

The Path Ahead: Inflation

The rapid reopening of the economy has brought a sharp run-up in inflation. Over the 12 months through July, measures of headline and core personal consumption expenditures inflation have run at 4.2 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively—well above our 2 percent longer-run objective.

Tái mở của nhanh chóng nền kinh tế đã làm lạm phát tăng mạnh. Chí số giá tiêu dùng và core CPI đã tăng lần lượt 4.2% và 3.6%, cao hơn nhiều so với mục tiêu dài hạn 2%.

But that concern is tempered by a number of factors that suggest that these elevated readings are likely to prove temporary.

Nhưng lo ngại đó được làm dịu đi bởi hàng loạt nguyên do cho thấy sự tăng cao đó chỉ là tạm thời.

1. The absence so far of broad-based inflation pressures

Hàng hóa lâu bền đóng góp 1% tăng lên của chỉ số giá tiêu dùng headline và core.

Giá năng lượng tăng đóng góp 0.8% tăng lên của chỉ số giá headline

Với kinh nghiệm của Fed, 2 loại này chỉ tác động tạm thời.

2. Moderating inflation in higher-inflation items

3. Wages

But if wage increases were to move materially and persistently above the levels of productivity gains and inflation, businesses would likely pass those increases on to customers, a process that could become the sort of "wage–price spiral" seen at times in the past.

Nhưng nếu tiền lượng tăng cao hơn một cách bền vững so với năng suất và lạm phát, doanh nghiệp sẽ chuyển mức tăng đó cho người tiêu dùng, tiến trình kiểu vòng xoáy tiền lương như từng đã diễn ra trong quá khứ.

4. Longer-term inflation expectations

Việc duy trì kỳ vọng lạm phát dài hạn 2% là tốt cho cả việc làm và ổn định giá cả.

Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time.

Việc duy trì lạm phát kỳ vọng 2% cho thấy lạm phát hiện tại cao hơn mức này cũng chỉ là tạm thời.

5. The prevalence of global disinflationary forces over the past quarter century

The pattern of low inflation likely reflects sustained disinflationary forces, including technology, globalization and perhaps demographic factors, as well as a stronger and more successful commitment by central banks to maintain price stability.

Mô hình lạm phát thấp phản ánh những lực khử lạm phát bền vững bao gồm công nghệ, toàn cầu hóa và nhân khẩu học, cũng như cam kết mạnh mẽ bở các ngân hàng trung ương trong việc ổn định giá.

Implications for Monetary Policy. Hàm ý đối với chính sách tiền tệ

Tags: ,

Economics

Fed rate hike March 2017

by finandlife16/03/2017 08:55

Đây là lần thứ 3 Fed tăng lãi suất, lần đầu vào giữa tháng 12/2015, khi đó, Fed nâng lãi suất từ range 0%-0.25% lên 0.25%-0.5%. Lần thứ 2, vào giữa tháng 2/2016, nâng range lên 0.5%-0.75%. Và lần này, range lãi suất đã đẩy lên 0.75%-1%. Động thái này không gây bất ngờ, vì trước đó, vào giữa tháng 12/2016, Fed đã đề ra kế hoạch sẽ hành động như vậy.

The Fed lifted key rates by a quarter-point Wednesday to a range of 0.75% to 1%. 

“The markets are excited -- bonds, stocks, gold and everyone short the dollar -- because the Fed didn’t change their dot plot and thus remain on pace with 3 hikes this year in total,” said Peter Boockvar

Lần 1: Official FED Rate hike

Lần 2: US Fed raises rates for second time since Great Recession

 

Finandlife

Tags:

Economics

US Fed raises rates for second time since Great Recession

by finandlife15/12/2016 08:55

MINH TRANG, SENIOR FOREIGN CURRENCY TRADERS, SILICON VALLEY BANK, SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA:

"She basically came out to support the rate hike today. She is also giving a guideline for 2017 with possibly three rate hikes. This is a vote of confidence on the economy that's strong enough to support another rate hike. It paints a supportive picture for dollar. The dollar has been strong for the last 30 days. That's been the dominant move. Today that trend continues. The press conference is tempering the initial enthusiasm from the statement. More fiscal stimulus and more rate increases will create a stronger dollar but we are looking pretty far ahead. You are seeing more of a weakness against the yen at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to hear about the parity chant again on the euro with anti-establishment wind blowing there."

Relative:

Official FED Rate hike

 

Thomson Reuters

Tags:

Economics

US Fed rate hike drag on investor sentiment

by finandlife14/12/2016 08:47

Anticipation of a US Fed rate hike Thursday and resulting foreign outflows seem to be dragging on local investor sentiment.

The Minister of Industry and Trade has just signed Decision 4846 approving a plan to simplify administrative procedures in 2017. Accordingly, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) decided to completely remove 15 procedures, such as the certified declaration of imported steel and the certified demand to import steel, and simplify 108 of 443 procedures under MoIT management.

The removal and simplification of nearly 28% of all administrative procedures will help to reduce time and costs for enterprises, attract investment and stimulate business activities. This is one of the biggest measures of the government to reform and improve the business environment. In 2016, the Government has repeatedly emphasized “improving the business environment” as one of its highest priorities. In 2017, the key indicators of the business environment are targeted to reach the average of the ASEAN-4 countries. Although Vietnam's business environment has been improving recently, there are many indicators where it still lags.

PNJ: PNJ's chairwoman reaffirms the company's insulation from DongA, announced impressive 11M results
* In a meeting this afternoon with analysts, PNJ's CEO and Chairwoman, Madame Dung confirmed that, apart from the investment in DongA Bank which has been fully provisioned, PNJ and its BOD will not be affected by the investigation of said bank.

* Regarding 11M 2016 operating results, PNJ recorded a revenue growth of 9% vs 11M 2015. Retail revenue grew 28%, driven by 25 new stores and a SSSG of 10% in 11M 2016. In line with the strong retail revenue growth, PBT posted a 31% increase year over year.

* For FY2016, PNJ estimates revenue and PBT growth of 11% and 205%, respectively, which trails our current forecast.

* Our view remains that the incident related to DongA Bank will not affect PNJ fundamentally. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with a TSR of 31.5% inclusive of a 2.6% dividend yield.

 

VCSC Research

Tags: ,

Economics | Stocks

Official FED Rate hike

by finandlife17/12/2015 09:40

An orthodox economist for unorthodox times

Reuters

Fed Raises Rates After Seven Years Near Zero, Expects ‘Gradual’ Tightening Path

Wall Street Journal

Dow rallies on heels of historic Federal Reserve interest-rate hike

 

Marketwatch

Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era; Signals 4 Quarter-Point Increases in 2016

Bloomberg 

“The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, the same as September, implying four quarter-point increases in the target range next year, based on the median number from 17 officials.

Tags:

Economics

DISCLAIMER

I am an Investment Manager at TOP 2 Securities Co., in Vietnam. I started working in investment field as a junior analyst at a Fund in 2007. I have more than 13 years of experience in investment analysis. I have a deep understanding of Vietnam macroeconomics, equity research, and seeking investment opportunities. Besides, I am a specialist in derivatives, ETF, and CW. This is my private Blog. I use this Blog to store information and share my personal views. I don't guarantee the certainty. And I am not responsible when the user uses the information from the Blog for trading/investing activities. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via email thuong.huynhngoc@gmail.com. 

Designed by: Nguyễn Chí Hiếu